Capper Digs Deep Into Pitching Matchup, Finding Value In Orioles vs. Rangers Total Odds

Friday, April 15, 2016 3:16 PM GMT

Our handicapper explores the odds boards and stats in order to find a valuable MLB pick for tonight's action-packed game between the Rangers and Orioles.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers

Baltimore Orioles
I was down on the Baltimore Orioles this year because of their starting rotation, but they seemed to have come out strong out of the gate to a 7-2 record after last night’s game. I’m not so sure that is because of their superior pitching skills though, or because they were facing the hapless Minnesota Twins in their first series. Or, maybe the weather in Baltimore made some type of advantage. Either way, they are sure to come back down to earth soon.

In this second game of the 4-game series, the Rangers look to assure a split after they took the first game on Thursday night, 6-3. Chris Tillman didn’t escape a big inning in the sixth after giving up 5 earned runs when the Rangers played merry-go-round on the base paths. The Rangers weren’t without pitching difficulty either, as the bullpen was forced to keep the Orioles at bay for nearly 4 innings after Cole Hamels didn’t make it past the 6th inning.

Pitching for the Baltimore Orioles on Friday night is Vance Worley, a pitcher that induces contact in an extreme way. And although that is the case, if Worley gets two strikes on a batter, he has been able to strike them out on called strikes better than anyone else in the MLB odds boards – at least last year anyway. Worley doesn’t have good velocity as he only has a fastball in the high-80’s, but he does have excellent command and tailing movement that can catch edges of the plate.

 

Texas Rangers
Starting for the Rangers is Martin Perez, who has had some issues with walks over his first two starts of the season, leading to a 9/3 BB/K ratio. That’s good for a WHIP of 1.46, even though his ERA is sitting at a respectable 3.65. Perez is 0-1 in his two starts on the season thus far. He better not rack up any walks against Baltimore on Friday night, as in his limited career Orioles hitters Manny Machado and Mark Trumbo have had a lot of success against him. In Perez’s first two starts opposing batters have compiled a .216 BABIP against him. As compared to his career mark of .307, we know there is a bit of regression in store for Mr. Perez. He’s bound to get lit up very soon when balls start dropping where people aren’t standing.

The line on this game opened with Texas favored just slightly on the moneyline at -108 at Pinnacle, and more heavily at -122 at BetOnline. Each book has had line movement in opposite directions, but the effect has been the same in that Texas can now be found at either -116 or -117 as consensus across all books. The O/U total opened at 9, and other than a few nickel movements here and there, is locked in at that number. The run line has had the most significant movement, with the Orioles opening at -200, +1.5 runs at Pinnacle, before dropping down to -183. The run line movement is opposite that of the moneyline movement in this case.

I really like this pitching matchup for the Rangers lineup, as they have some guys that are hyper-aggressive in the zone, such as Adrian Beltre. However, I also do not trust Martin Perez with the current BABIP that is inflating his current results. That leaves the offense to wager on, which I think has good value here, and I will be taking Over 9 runs as one of my Friday MLB picks.[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2992842, "sportsbooksIds":[93,1096,169,999996,180,139], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
Free MLB Pick: Over 9
Best Line Offered: at Heritage