Can You Profit From Dodgers vs. Braves MLB Betting Trends?

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, April 20, 2016 5:19 PM UTC

Wednesday, Apr. 20, 2016 5:19 PM UTC

Dodgers/Braves resume their early-week set with their 2nd game. Last night, W. Perez replaced scheduled starter Teheran, making it a “NO PLAY” for us. Today though, we're back with a great MLB pick. 

LA Dodgers (Stripling) vs. Atlanta Braves (Teheran)
Tonight, with Teheran (scratched because of fever last night) scheduled to start and the Dodgers off a loss, we are right back on LAD tonight!

The Dodgers have been MLB’s most resilient team in recent seasons. In the last 2+ years, LAD is 92-55 following a defeat, including 3-2 in that role this season. It is of some concern that the LA bats have grown cold with 6 or less hits in each of the previous 3 games. But as I penned yesterday, that figures to change against Teheran. For the Dodgers, Stripling has been a pleasant surprise. Though failing to get a decision because of poor run support, Stripling has a 2.03 ERA in a pair of starts against San Fran and Arizona.  

It appears Atlanta has caught an updraft. In a 0-9 start, Atlanta scored just 24 total runs with a .196 BA. Since that time, the Braves have gone 4-0, scoring 26 runs (6 or more each game), while batting .429 with RISP. They will need all of that and more with Teheran on the mound. As noted in yesterday’s analysis, I would normally be hesitant about fading Teheran, especially on this field, where he performed admirably last year. This year, however, Teheran is off to a horrendous start, including a pair of recent games in which he is 0-2 with 11 IP and allowed 11 runs. Pitching against the Dodgers, Teheran is 0-4 with a 6.08 ERA. 


Betting Analysis
In yesterday’s run line analysis, I noted that despite lower scoring in the league, there were actually more games decided by 2 or more runs than over the previous 6 years. But that all came to a crashing halt last night, when 7 of the 15 games were decided by exactly 1 run! But, the run line history of these two teams tells us we must not fear the Tuesday’s finals. 

Now back to that run line history! Last year, 69 of 92 (75%) LA Dodger wins were by 2 or more runs, including 29 of 37 (78%) on the road. That lifted the Dodgers’ road run line record to 147 of 192 (77%) in the previous 5 years by 2 or more runs. That is a solid long-term history. This year, 7 of 8 total LA Dodger wins have come by 2 or more runs, including 3 of 4 on the road. 

For Atlanta, in the last 2 years, 68 of 78 (87%) home losses have come by 2 or more runs, including 37 of 39 (95%) last year. Holding true to that form, 7 of 9 Atlanta losses this year have been by 2 or more runs, including 4 of 5 on this field. Lay it with confidence on the run line plus the price with the Dodgers today. I invite you to put the MLB odds in your favor and join me in my MLB pick on the LA Dodgers tonight.

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Free MLB Pick: Dodgers -1.5
Best Line Offered: at Heritage 

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