Paul Skenes Cy Young Odds 2024: Can Pirates Rookie Really Win?

Paul Skenes is having a truly historic rookie campaign for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and he's the runaway favorite by the NL Rookie of the Year odds. Is it possible he adds some additional hardware in the form of the Cy Young Award?

In the last 20 years, only one pitcher has won the Cy Young Award while pitching fewer than 180 innings (not including the abbreviated 2020 campaign). That man was Corbin Burnes in 2021, and he barely beat out Zack Wheeler while throwing only 167 frames.

However, those 167 innings are still far, far more than what Skenes is expected to finish this season with. Between the 86 he's managed already and the average from baseball's leading projection models, Skenes should finish with roughly 140 innings over 23 starts.

Now, even though no starting pitcher has ever won the award while throwing fewer than 150 innings, Skenes finds himself near the top of the Cy Young odds leaderboard at our best MLB betting sites.

Can Skenes actually win, or is this just bait by the best sports betting sites?

Comparing Skenes' season to other historic rookie campaigns

Skenes wouldn't be the first rookie to have a Cy Young-worthy freshman year in the majors.

If we go back to just the turn of the millennium, there are plenty of other pitchers who have put together extremely impressive seasons and not been crowned the Cy Young winner.

Let's look at four in particular and how their numbers compare to Skenes'.

Paul Skenes (2024)

Spencer Strider (2022)

The most recent comparison to Skenes is, of course, fellow flame-throwing strikeout machine Spencer Strider.

Perhaps the thing that most hurt Strider was that he opened the season in the Atlanta Braves' bullpen. However, he finished with nearly as many innings as Skenes is projected to end the year with.

Strider was truly dominant in his rookie campaign, and he was even better when the Braves stretched him out. His 1.92 FIP and 2.20 xFIP across 107 1/3 innings as a starter are far better than Skenes' respective marks of 2.69 and 2.67 thus far.

However, Strider didn't even win NL Rookie of the Year, losing to teammate Michael Harris. And when it came to NL Cy Young, Strider was never in the conversation.

Trevor Rogers (2021)

Trevor Rogers may not seem like much here in 2024 - despite what the Baltimore Orioles would have you believe with who they sent to the Miami Marlins to acquire him - but he appeared to be the next left-handed ace following his rookie season in 2021.

Rogers was lights-out across 133 innings, suppressing home runs at an epic rate and striking out opposing batters for fun.

But, much like Strider, Rogers didn't even manage to win the NL Rookie of the Year Award, losing to Cincinnati Reds infielder Jonathan India. In fact, he received only one first-place vote for the award, and he was never part of the Cy Young discussion.

Jose Fernandez (2013)

Jose Fernandez nearly did the unthinkable in 2013, but an inhuman season by Clayton Kershaw stopped the Marlins right-hander from becoming just the second rookie pitcher ever to win Cy Young (the first and only remains Fernando Valenzuela).

Fernandez cruised to his NL Rookie of the Year win, earning 26 of 30 first-place votes. However, as you can see, Fernandez threw far more innings than what Skenes can manage this season.

Additionally, his pitching rates were truly elite, and both his ERA and WHIP represent numbers that Skenes could find difficult to match when the 2024 season concludes.

Roy Oswalt (2001)

Roy Oswalt's finishing positions in the major award races look very bizarre without context. He somehow finished fifth in the NL Cy Young race and 22nd in MVP voting despite not winning Rookie of the Year. That was because Albert Pujols existed, as he finished fourth in NL MVP voting as a rookie.

Oswalt perhaps serves as the best comparison for Skenes, with his 141 2/3 innings and 4.2 fWAR nearly mirroring what Skenes is projected to finish with. The only thing Oswalt didn't do as well was punch out opposing hitters, but he was better at limiting walks.

He also serves as a good indication of where Skenes is most likely to finish in the NL Cy Young race. I just can't see him winning, but I can envision him receiving a few votes if he keeps up a relatively similar level of dominance.

Projecting the 2024 NL Cy Young winner

FanGraphs' Cy Young projections (Steamer)

FanGraphs' Cy Young projections (The Bat)

As you can see, by using two major projection models, FanGraphs projects Skenes to finish fourth in the NL Cy Young race. I think that's a relatively fair spot for him given the narrative associated with his campaign and the dominance he's displayed.

However, Skenes isn't trading as the fourth-biggest favorite. His best price is +260, odds that are associated with a 27.78% implied probability that he'll win the award.

Meanwhile, Dylan Cease is as long as +1900 and ranks ahead of Skenes by these projections thanks to the fact that he's expected to finish with nearly 200 innings.

Based on The Bat's projection, Skenes is barely more likely to win than either Hunter Greene (57.5 CYP, 75 FIP CYP) or Tyler Glasnow (56.3 CYP, 87.9 FIP CYP), and you can get them at +1600 and +7000 odds, respectively.

Can Skenes really win NL Cy Young?

So, can Skenes actually win the NL Cy Young? The short answer is no.

I don't see a world in which the Baseball Writers' Association of America - despite how wrong they often are - reward a rookie starting pitching with the Cy Young Award after roughly ~140 innings with the likes of Sale, Wheeler, and Cease all going nearly 200 frames with similarly elite stats.

Also, though Skenes has the fun talking point of being an appointment-viewing rookie, the veterans involved have some pretty compelling narratives, too.

Sale, one of the greatest lefties of this generation, could finally win his first Cy Young Award immediately following a trade for essentially nothing when it looked like he had nothing left in the tank. He's also finished in the top five of Cy Young voting a whopping six times.

Or, what about Wheeler, who's been an absolute workhorse for the Phillies since joining them following the 2019 campaign? Wheeler is also more or less considered the People's Cy Young at this point following his controversial second-place finish to Burnes in 2021, and many believe he deserved more respect in the race last year, too.

Throw in the fact that Cease is doing all of this following a trade to the Padres just two weeks before Opening Day, and you have equally (or more) compelling arguments for three of the contenders surrounding Skenes.

This is all to say that I don't think you should bet on Skenes to win the NL Cy Young, and I'm quite sure his placement among the favorites at our best sports betting apps is a trap to lure more casual bettors to place a wager on the name more than anything else.

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