During the shortened 2020 MLB season, The New York Mets finished with a 26-34 record. Even though the Mets consistently disappoint their vocal fanbase, last season the Mets disappointed bettors as they went under their 32.5 win total.
During the offseason, the Mets underwent some major changes. In October right before the offseason, the Mets were sold to Steve Cohen who is currently the richest owner in baseball.
Cohen decided to do what every rich person does, spend money. This offseason the Mets acquired SS Francisco Lindor and SP Carlos Carrasco from the Indians in a blockbuster trade. Lindor as a four-time all-star and two-time gold glove winner at only 27 years old is a major get for the Mets. Lindor bolsters a Mets lineup that includes Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, and Brandon Nimmo. Of the Mets lineup, only catcher James McCann can be considered a weak link.
Carlos Carrasco the other player acquired in the Lindor trade is a reliable starting pitcher who can be counted on to pitch almost six quality innings in each of his starts. As a power pitcher, he should accumulate many strikeouts for the Mets this season. Carrasco joins a well-rounded rotation which includes Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman, Taijuan Walker, and David Peterson.
How the Mets Fit Into My MLB Betting Model
My MLB betting model is based on the Bill James Pythagorean theorem which states that a team’s winning percentage is equivalent to their runs scored to the 1.81 power divided by runs scored to the 1.81 power and runs allowed to the 1.81 power.
For my model I take each player on a team and I determine how many runs they either allow or score based on hitting, fielding, and pitching. After I come up with a theoretical winning percentage for each team, I simulate their chances of winning based on their schedule and adjust their win total number.
After I come up with a win total number for all 30 MLB teams, I then run a Monte Carlo model to simulate the MLB season 10,000 times. After running my Monte Carlo model, I can put a number on a team’s chance of winning a specific number of games and their division. Here at SBR we have lots of resources for avid bettors such as our betting calculators.
Can the Mets Go Over Their 88.5 Win Total?
When making projections for how the Mets will do this season, you must project how each NL East team will do. Of the 162 games that MLB teams play, 76 or 46.9% are within their division. This helps teams like the Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox that play almost a quarter of their games against the rebuilding Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals. Unfortunately for the Mets, they play in a tough division.
The only team that can be considered rebuilding in the NL East are the Miami Marlins and they made the playoffs last season. This season if they played a neutral schedule, they would be slightly below .500, but because they play in the NL East my model projects them to win 74.1 games. Other than the Marlins, the Mets play in the same division as the Braves, Phillies, and Nationals who could all plausibly make the playoffs.
The Mets win total is set at 89.5 wins (Over -130, Under +100) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) and model believes that bettors should stay away from this prop as I project the Mets to win 89.6 games. However, my model is bearish on the Atlanta Braves as I project them winning 86.8 games and BetOnline’s win total prop sets the Braves at 91.5 wins (Over -115, Under -115). Partially because the Braves play the Mets 19 times, I am recommending betting on the Braves to win fewer than 91.5 games.
Can the Mets Win the NL East?
Before asking if the Mets can make the playoffs, you must ask if the Mets can win the NL East. Of the five teams that make the playoff annually for each league, three of them are division champions. If the Mets win the division the make the playoffs, and if the Mets do well but not win the division, they are not guaranteed to win the division.
Based on my 10,000 simulations of the season, the Mets won the NL East 40.3% of the time for a fair odds price of +148. Currently they are +140 to win the NL East, so I would recommend not betting on the Mets winning the division. The NL East is wide open as I give the Braves a 26.2% chance of winning in addition to a 16.3% chance for the Phillies, and a 13.9% chance for the Nationals. The Phillies are the only team worth betting on winning the NL East at +900 (10% implied probability) as they have a 16.3% chance of winning the division.
Can the Mets Make the Playoffs?
The Mets should make the playoffs this year as there are no excuses for not doing well this year. My model projects them winning the division 40% of the time, but they could easily make the playoffs as a Wild Card team. FanGraphs for example gives the Mets an 82% chance of making the playoffs based on them having a 57.4% chance of winning the division and a 24.6% chance of winning a wild card spot.
Unfortunately for Mets bettors, everyone agrees on the Mets playoff chances and that is why they are -240 to make the playoffs and +190 to miss the playoffs on BetOnline. Unfortunately, there is no value on betting either side of the Mets playoff prop.
However, there is plenty of value in betting on the Braves missing the playoffs at +230 (30.3% implied probability). The Braves could easily miss the playoffs if the Mets win the NL East and they don’t have a strong enough record to make the playoffs on their own merits. That is why in my opinion the best way to bet on the Mets, is to bet against the Braves making the playoffs.
*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.