Call Their Bluff! Pick Angels vs. D'Backs Over 9 as Books Aim to Intimidate Bettors with High Total

Charles Stark

Thursday, June 18, 2015 12:25 PM GMT

Today's opposite play of the day takes us to Arizona where the Los Angeles Angels take on the Arizona Diamondbacks. I am backing over the total in this matchup with my MLB picks.

Odds
MLB odds makers came out with a total of 9 for this game and just looking at it is seems too high with two guys on the mound with ERA's under 4.00. At most sports books you can get the 9 at regular odds of -110, but at Bookmaker the odds right now on the total are 9 at -105.

 

Pitching Matchup
For the Angels CJ Wilson takes the mound with a 3.60 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. He is coming off his best start of the season allowing zero earned runs in seven innings pitched with only two hits. Just off these numbers alone it seems like that total is too high but in his two previous starts to that last game he gave up 11 runs in 13 innings. For the Arizona Diamondbacks Allen Webster takes the mound with a 3.18 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. He has only appeared in one game this year allowing two earned runs in five innings pitched to the San Francisco Giants. For his career he has 20 game appearances with a 6.06 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Both pitchers have shown at times they get knocked around quite a bit and look for both the Diamondbacks and the Angels to have good quality at-bats today.

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At the Plate
Wilson is obviously the more polished pitcher in this spot but the Diamondbacks are a really good hitting team. They rank eighth in the league batting .265 against left-handers. They also ranked third in the league in runs scored per game, and ninth in on base percentage. Up and down the lineup they have guys that can hit. The Angels are ranked in the middle of the league to the bottom of the league in most offensive categories. They simply have not clicked well at the plate this year. Still, with guys like Mike Trout and Albert Pujols they have the capability to put up some runs especially against a pitcher like Webster. In their six road games prior to yesterday's game the averaged over four runs per contest. I look for them to have a big day today in Arizona.

At first glance the total of 9 on this game seems a bit high. But after digging into the stat some it becomes pretty easy to see this game has the potential to go well over nine, back the over with confidence as your MLB pick.

MLB Pick: Over at 5Dimes at 5Dimes

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Must Read: Ron also covers this early MLB matchup between Angels-D'backs