Busting The Books On Saturday W/ Two Underdog MLB Picks

Ross Benjamin

Saturday, May 14, 2016 11:58 AM UTC

Saturday, May. 14, 2016 11:58 AM UTC

Our MLB handicapping professional shares his top two underdogs for Saturday night’s card. He’s gone a remarkable 16-4 (80%) with his last 20 underdog MLB picks.

Cincinnati Reds (Adelman) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Nola)
Tim Adelman has pitched very well in two starts this season, posting a stellar 2.45 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. His pitching adversary on Saturday will be Aaron Nola of the Phillies. Nola’s season numbers to date are very impressive, but all of his quality starts have come on the road. Conversely, during his two home starts Nola has a sizable 8.25 ERA.

By virtue of Friday night’s 3-2 loss, Cincinnati has started the year by going an awful 2-11 in away games. Even the worst MLB teams of all time didn’t lose on the road at this rate for an entire season, and I don’t expect that to be the case for Cincinnati as well. Contrary to their opponent today, Cincinnati had been showing signs of life offensively over its previous seven outings prior to this weekend series, averaging 5.6 runs scored per game, and they also had a superb .527 slugging percentage.

The Phillies have vastly overachieved thus far with a 21-15 (.583) record. The vast majority of their early success is due to stellar pitching, and especially so from its starters. However, when looking at their offensive numbers heading into this weekend’s action, it’s just a matter of when and not if the gauntlet will fall. As of Friday May 13, Philadelphia was averaging a paltry 3.3 runs scored per game, and had a horrible .281 OBP. Current MLB odds at Sportsbet.com indicates that Philadelphia is a -151 money line favorite on Saturday. Considering their anemic offensive numbers, and a bullpen which has allowed 21 home runs in 112.0 innings this year, they provide absolutely no betting value in this specific role, and if anything qualify as a legitimate fade today.

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Free MLB Pick: Cincinnati Reds +150
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

Toronto Blue Jays (Estrada) vs. Texas Rangers (Lewis)
For starters, the money line underdog Texas is 12-7 at home thus far in 2016. Their starting pitcher tonight will be Colby Lewis, and the veteran right-hander has displayed consistently good form during his last four outings. During that stretch, Lewis had a shiny 2.67 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.

Marco Estrada has compiled a terrific 2.39 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in six starts this season. However, during his only two outings on the road, Estrada posted a large 1.73 WHIP, and has been extremely fortunate his ERA of 4.09 in those starts wasn’t much worse.

With all things being considered, I like the home underdog betting value in this game, and one of my Saturday MLB picks will be indicative of that sentiment.

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Free MLB Pick: Texas Rangers +123
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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