Burnett & Heston to Keep Pirates-Giants Under MLB Odds Total

David Lawrence

Tuesday, June 2, 2015 11:44 AM UTC

Tuesday, Jun. 2, 2015 11:44 AM UTC

We are focusing our sports handicapping skills on the Pirates vs. Giants, which opened up as a PK. It's understandable as these were two of the better teams in the NL in May.

The Pittsburgh Pirates Can Win Because…
They’ve been winning almost every time that Burnett has been on the mound recently. Burnett has been stellar all year but the Pirates finally started to provide him with some run support in May. They actually lost four of his first five starts, scoring just eight runs in those outings. Since then, though they’ve scored an average of 7.2 runs per game and they’ve won all five of his starts.

Burnett has been excellent all season long as he had a 1.80 ERA in April and a 1.82 ERA in May. His composite 1.81 ERA is fourth-best in the National League and his 2.4 WAR is fifth best. That goes to show just how valuable he is.

He has a fairly decent track record against the Giants as he’s 6-3 against them with a 2.04 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. Although the Giants bats have been hot recently, Burnett should be able to cool them down.

Beyond that, the Pirates are going up against Chris Heston, who has been fairly inconsistent this month. In his last seven starts, he’s had four outings where he’s allowed five earned runs or more and he’s had three outings where he’s allowed one earned run or less.


The San Francisco Giants Can Win Because…
Heston’s splits show that he’s much better at home than on the road. Yes, he’s been inconsistent at times this year but he’s been far more reliable in front of the home audience. At home, he’s 2-2 with a 2.16 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. On the road, he’s 3-1 but he has a 5.79 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. The biggest difference is the pitcher’s park at home where he’s allowed just one home run in 33.1 innings pitched compared to five home runs in 28 innings on the road.

The other factor here is the night game. Heston has a 7.78 ERA in day games, giving up 17 earned runs in 19.2 innings. At night, he’s got a 1.94 ERA with just nine earned runs allowed in 41.2 innings of work.

Given the splits, the Giants should have a decent shot to win this game, so consider them for your MLB picks.


Baseball Betting Outlook
I’m going to roll the dice playing under the MLB odds in this one and hope that the good Heston shows up. It seems like day games and road games are his weak spot, but he’s at home and pitching at night in this one. As for Burnett, he’s been solid all year and he has a good track record against the Giants, so I expect him to do his part. Take the under here.

MLB Pick: Under at GT Bets

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