MLB Betting: Bumgarner To Bully Phillies Lineup, You Must Back The Giants

Mark Lathrop

Tuesday, August 2, 2016 12:46 PM UTC

Tuesday, Aug. 2, 2016 12:46 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper looks at the favorite in this game and just can't find a reason to fade them. Read on as he makes the case to back the Giants on the road for his MLB Pick.

San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies
Traveling again this week to Stockton, CA, home of the inventor of the Presto-Log and also of the Stockton Ports, the short season An affiliate of the Oakland A’s. There is about a 2% chance I’ll see a future MLB star tonight, but a 100% chance that I’ll get a $3 beer at the park and sit in the front row for under $20. Minor league baseball is still setting attendance records for a reason.

Not too far away from me is the home of the San Francisco Giants, who unfortunately for me, are not playing a home series this week or I’d be at AT&T Park right now. No, they are all the way in Philadelphia, where they are huge -215 favorites on the MLB Odds moneyline against the 48-59 Phillies. After playing over their heads for the first week of the season, the Phillies have come back to earth after the All-Star Break. The O/U has opened at a low 7.5 runs per game here across the board, with a slight lean to the Under. The run line is actually paying positive odds on the home team after giving up 1.5 runs, coming in at +108 at Pinnacle for the Phillies.

Zach Eflin starts in this game for the Phillies, and he is coming off of his second worst start of the season, the first of course being his initial MLB start of his career. Eflin gave up seven earned runs over 5 innings pitched at Miami last week, and was plagued with 4 walks – the most of any start in his young career. Eflin is exhibiting extreme home/away splits to start his career and has had a lot of success in Philadelphia so far. On the year, Eflin has posted a stellar 2.61 ERA at home, but a disappointing 5.19 ERA on the road. On the year, Eflin has compiled a 4.23 ERA, 27/12 K/BB rate, 1.19 WHIP, and .250 batting average allowed.

Of course, we couldn’t discuss this game without touching on San Francisco’s starter, Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner is in the midst of one of his best seasons of his career, statistically, and is on track to have the most strikeouts he’s had before in a single season. On the year, Bumgarner has put up a 2.09 ERA, 170/36 K/BB rate, 0.98 WHIP, and .201 batting average allowed. These numbers are right in line or better than his best years to date. Oddly enough, there has been a drop in velocity in Bumgarner’s fastball this year, but the other pitches in his arsenal are the same or better. This is one of those situations where a ‘pitcher’ is just that, and not reliant on raw velocity to get a batter out.

Author’s note: The beers at the Ports’ game went up to $6 each. This author is disappointed.

There are some interesting betting trends coming into this game with the Giants, namely that they have cashed the Under in 8 of their last 10 games. Those 2 games that they went over were started by Jake Peavy and Matt Cain, not exactly the aces they once were. The Phillies have their own trends of offensive struggles, both against left-handed starters and at home, where they are 8-13 and 20-30 O-U, respectively.

This is the best case scenario for Bumgarner to get a win, and unless he just tunes out against a subpar team, he should cruise to a victory. I’m not for betting on Bumgarner to be uncompetitive, so I’m taking the Giants -1.5 runs at -120 at 5Dimes as my Tuesday MLB Pick.


2016 YTD MLB: 42-26-3, +14.51 Units
Free MLB Pick: Giants -1.5 (-120)
Best Line Offered: at Heritage & at 5Dimes

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