We are red-hot heading into Wednesday’s MLB slate. I am back with two more of my best MLB Prop picks from Bovada sportsbook and I am feeling two big winners once the night is through.
Madison Bumgarner O/U 7 ½ strikeouts
Madison Bumgarner is one of the best lefties in the game right now. With Clayton Kershaw on the disabled list, he might be the best and he has a juicy matchup against the Cincinnati Reds on Wednesday afternoon. The Reds have two lefties with high strikeout rates against left-handed pitching who will easily still be in the lineup tonight and with how bad Cincinnati has been against lefties as a team, the over is looking like a nice value.
MLB odds of -135 for over 7 ½ punch-outs is too little of a total for a matchup with the Reds. Cincinnati owns a 23.3 strikeout rate against left-handers as a team in 2016. For the year Bumgarner owns a combined 28.3 strikeout rate overall and well over 10 strikeouts per nine innings, making him a fine play to go at least seven or eight innings in this one and have eight or more strikeouts.
Bumgarner had only six strikeouts in his last start against the Yankees where he went seven innings allowing two earned runs. However, that was on the road. In his two starts before that he had a combined 23 strikeouts, one of which helped us cash a winning ticket just a week or two ago.
What makes the Giants’ ace such a good play today is he is back at home. When pitching in San Francisco, hitters own just a .225 wOBA and .177 average this season and at home Bumgarner has a strikeout rate close to 30 percent. Against a team like the Reds, eight or more punch-outs are coming this afternoon for Bumgarner.
Free MLB Pick: Over 7 ½ -135
Best Line Offered: at Bovada
Anthony Rizzo O/U 2 ½ runs, hits and RBI’s
I figured Anthony Rizzo would be about -105 or -110 for the over on his runs, hits and RBI’s total for Wednesday, but Bovada has gifted us with +105 MLB Odds for the over at 2 ½, and I am loving the value.
Rizzo has been roughing up right-handed pitching all season. He owns a .315 average and .428 wOBA against them and 17 of his 24 home runs this season have come off right-handed pitching. His isolated power goes up to .310 against righties as well, which ranks him fifth in the league with players who have at least 200 plate appearances.
His wOBA ranks third in the league as well against right-handed pitchers and tonight he has a juicy matchup against Anthony Ranaudo, who has been mainly a minor leaguer over his career. On top of that, his time in the majors doesn’t look good, especially against left-handed hitters. Lefties own a .359 wOBA and a 52.1 fly ball rate throughout Ranaduo’s career.
With how well Rizzo has been hitting power-wise with three homers, 13 RBI’s since the All-Star Break, it’s hard not to like him here. He hasn’t hit for average much at just over .200 in his last 44 at bats, but he would have cashed the over in six of his last 13 games. All we need is one big hit, the over and a +105 win is ours tonight for MLB pick.
My Pick: Over 2 ½ +105
Best Line Offered: at Bovada