Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.
There could be a relatively low scoring affair in the City of Brotherly Love Wednesday night when southpaw Madison Bumgarner and the San Francisco Giants (56-44, 28-19 away) pay a visit to right-hander A.J. Burnett and the Philadelphia Phillies (43-57, 19-31 home) in the third game of a four-game series from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA at 7:05 ET in a game televised nationally on ESPN.
The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 7½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -103.
Giants Hot, Phillies Not
The Giants had the best record in all of baseball for much of the first half of the season before hitting a major slump that saw them fall behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West for several days. However, San Francisco has again become a solid MLB pick while winning five of its last six games including the first two games of this series to move back into first place by one game over those Dodgers.
The Phillies are heading in the opposite direction as they have lost six of their last seven games to drop 13 games behind the first-place Washington Nationals while in last place in the National League East, and there are more than a few rumors swirling that some of the quality Philadelphia starting pitchers will be traded as we are nearing the trading deadline.
Burnett Auditioning for Contender?
That could very well make this an open audition for Burnett, who certainly would not mind being traded to a playoff contender. Burnett may not have glorious year-to-date numbers at 6-9 with a 4.08 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, but he has been more than solid recently as he had seven straight Quality Starts before getting nicked up for six runs in five innings by the Braves in Atlanta last time out.
Still, Burnett should be able to bounce back well here at home, where he has a 3.39 ERA in 10 starts this season covering 66.1 innings, vs. a San Francisco offense batting only .239 vs. right-handed pitchers overall this year. Furthermore Burnett has fared well vs. the Giants during his career, allowing two earned runs or less in seven of his nine starts against them while going 6-3 with a 2.30 ERA and 1.09 WHIP with San Francisco hitting just .202 off of him.
Bumgarner Back to Normal
Bumgarner meanwhile was quite possibly the best southpaw pitcher in the National League before his last five starts, as he led all NL left-handers with a 2.63 ERA after his start in Arizona on June 22nd.
However, he then uncharacteristically proceeded to go four consecutive starts without recording a Quality Start, but the All-Star break may have done him some good as he finally started looking more like his usual self vs. the Miami Marlins last Friday, allowing one run on just four hits in six innings with seven strikeouts. That leaves Bumgarner at 11-7 with a 3.38 ERA for the season with a fantastic ratio of 135 strikeouts vs. 34 walks in 133 innings.
And his resurgence should continue here vs. a Philadelphia offense batting.237 vs. southpaws overall, an average that drops to a pathetic .214 here at home and to a hideous .180 over the last 10 games! The Phillies are 27th out of 30 Major League teams in scoring at 3.85 runs per game and that average drops to 3.54 runs in Philadelphia.
Unlike Last Two Nights?
Granted the first two games of this series have played easily ‘over’ with the Giants prevailing by scores of 7-4 and 9-6 respectively, but runs figure to be much harder to come by considering this pitching matchup and each team’s struggles vs. the respective opposing pitcher’s arm orientation, so go ‘under’ in Philadelphia on ESPN Wednesday.
MLB Pick: Giants, Phillies ‘under’ 7½ (-103)