Build Your Sportsbook Balance With Three Winning O/U MLB Picks

Matthew Jordan

Tuesday, April 12, 2016 12:00 PM GMT

The biggest story in baseball is back on display Tuesday as Rockies rookie Trevor Story looks to add to his MLB-record seven homers in his first six career games. How this will influence our MLB Picks?

San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies
This is by far the biggest total on the board and that almost always will be the case whenever the Rockies are at home in that thin air of Denver. Story was the National League Player of the Week for last week with those seven dingers. No player had ever hit that many in his first six big-league games. A few had hit six of them.

Last week, Story led both leagues in home runs (7), RBIs (12), total bases (30) and slugging percentage (1.111). He has more homers  than several teams do. Story's helmet and batting gloves already have been sent to the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown. It also wanted his bat but he said no. Story became one of four rookies to ever win the player of the week award in the first week of the season.

Houston rookie Tyler White took home AL honors on Monday so he's in that club. Story will take his early hacks against Giants right-hander Jeff Samardzija. He allowed an American League-leading 29 homers while with the Chicago White Sox in 2015. Samardzija wasn't sharp in his Giants debut last week, allowing three runs and eight hits, including  a homer, in a no-decision in Milwaukee. Obviously Story has never faced him in a regular-season game. Gerardo Parra is 6-for-15 with a homer off Samardzija.

Carlos Gonzalez also has gone deep against him. Colorado counters with Tyler Chatwood. He was solid in his debut, allowing one earned run and seven hits over 6.1 innings in Arizona. All the hits were singles. The Giants' Hunter Pence struggles against him, going 1-for-16. Brandon Crawford is 5-for-14. It has hit in six of the Giants' past eight on the road. The 'over' makes good sense as our MLB Pick, as it is 7-1-1 in Colorado's past nine following an off day. It is 5-1 in Chatwood's past six at home.

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MLB Free Pick: Over 11 -110 
Best Line Offered:   at Heritage

 

Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets
This is the lowest total on the board and some other sportsbooks, like BookMaker, have it at just 5.5.  And it should be low as this features a terrific pitching matchup of Marlins ace Jose Fernandez against New York's Noah Syndergaard. 

Fernandez had never suffered a loss in a home start in his career but did last Tuesday against the Detroit Tigers in allowing five runs and five hits over 5.2 innings. He did strike out 13, one shy of his career high. Fernandez had been 17-0 with a 1.40 ERA at Marlins Park, the most consecutive home wins to start a career in MLB history. Fernandez didn't face Mets in 2015 and was 1-1 with a 3.34 ERA in five away starts. He has a 1.64 ERA in his career at Citi Field but no decisions.

The Mets counter with big right-hander Noah Syndergaard. Some believe he could win a Cy Young this season. Syndergaard was dominant in his first start, shutting out the Royals in Kansas City on three hits over six innings and striking out nine. He has struck out at least eight hitters in his last five regular-season starts. Syndergaard really relied on his slider. He threw 23 of them and the Royals were 1-for-9 with six strikeouts against it. That's as many strikeouts with his slider as he had in the 2015 regular season. Syndergaard didn't face the Marlins last year as a rookie. Both guys are capable of throwing a shutout. The 'under' is 10-4 in Syndergaard's past 14 at home.

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MLB Free Pick: Under 6 +105
Best Line Offered: at Intertops

 

Cleveland Indians vs. Tampa Bay Rays
The Tribe are probably thrilled about playing indoors in St. Petersburg because they already have had three games postponed this season due to weather. Cleveland starts ace right-hander Corey Kluber here.

The 2014 AL Cy Young winner wasn't sharp in his opener, allowing four runs and nine hits over 5.1 innings in a loss to Boston. Weather might have affected him as it was near freezing in Cleveland that day. Kluber faced the Rays twice last year and was 0-1 with a 4.20 ERA in 15.0 innings. He struck out 20. Logan Morrison is 4-for-10 with a double off him. Kevin Kiermaier is 3-for-8 with a double and triple. Evan Longoria is 5-for-14 with a homer and three RBIs.

Tampa goes with lefty Matt Moore. He took a no-decision in  his opener against big-hitting Toronto, allowing three runs and five hits over five innings. Josh Donaldson's three-run homer accounted for all those runs. Moore was limited to 12 starts last year off Tommy John surgery. His one outing vs. Cleveland didn't go well as he gave up  four runs and six hits in 4.2 innings. Rajai Davis is 5-for-15 with two doubles off Moore. Jason Kipnis is 3-for-8 with two RBIs. The 'under' as offered on MLB Odds is 18-8 in Kluber's past 26 road starts. The 'under' is 4-0 in Moore's past five starts.

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MLB Free Pick: Under 7 +110
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline