Broom Alert: Pick Dodgers RL to Sweep & to Go 'Under' MLB Total

Darin Zank

Thursday, August 27, 2015 11:34 AM UTC

Thursday, Aug. 27, 2015 11:34 AM UTC

The Dodgers bopped three home runs in a victory last night, and to our delight covered against the run line. This handicapper is hoping for a similar outcome as LA shoots for a sweep of the Reds.

Dodgers-Reds Thursday Odds
In the early betting the best line we could find on LA with Zack Greinke was the -175 at Youwager, while Cincy with Anthony DeSclafani were getting +183 at 5Dimes. But that split wasn't going to last for long. The Dodgers could also be found at -115 giving the 1.5 runs on the run line at Pinnacle.


The Situation
Los Angeles has taken the first two games of this series, including a 7-4 decision Wednesday night. So the Dodgers have won two games in a row, after snapping a five-game losing streak, while Cincy has hit the skids, losing 11 of its last 12.

At 69-56 Los Angeles leads the NL West by 2.5 games over second-place San Francisco.

At 52-73 Cincinnati is just playing out the string on this lost season.

The Dodgers have now taken five of six games from the Reds this year, with the OVERS going 4-2.


Thursday's Mound Match-Up
Thursday's pitching face-off is a rematch of a game from 11 days ago, a 2-1 Los Angeles victory out at Chavez Ravine.

DeSclafani (7-9, 3,97), by our tough standards, is 12-for-24 on quality starts this season, but only one for his last three. Last Saturday he gave up six runs and 10 hits in five innings against Arizona, and over his last three starts he's allowed 11 runs and 26 hits through 17 innings. On the season the second-year Major Leaguer has allowed 148 hits through 143 innings, walked 49 and struck out 108.

Cincy is 11-13 in DeSclafani's starts, with the totals leaning UNDER by a 13-8 margin.

In two career starts against Los Angeles, including a quality performance 11 days ago, DeSclafani has allowed four runs through 12 innings; the Reds split those two games.

Greinke (13-3, 1.67) is 21-for-25 on quality starts, and three for his last three. Last Saturday he held Houston to three runs and three hits through seven innings, and over his last three starts he's limited foes to four runs through 20 innings. On the season the front-runner for this year's NL Cy Young award has allowed just 117 hits through 172 innings, walked 29 and whiffed 155 for a K/BB ratio of better than 5/1.

The Dodgers are 17-8 in Greinke's starts, with the UNDERS going 14-11.

Over the last two-plus seasons, since he signed with LA, Greinke has stared five times against Cincinnati, allowing 12 runs through 33 2/3 innings; thanks to some poor run support the Dodgers are only 2-3 in those games, with the UNDERS going 3-1-1.


Thursday's Batting Splits
Los Angeles ranks 17th in the Majors this season against right-handed pitching with a .250 team batting average, but sixth with a .324 team on-base percentage.

Cincy, meanwhile, ranks 22nd against righties with a .248 team BA and 17th with a .312 team OBP.


Ballpark Totals Factor
OVERS are 33-26 in games played at Great American Ball Park this season, which are averaging 9.1 runs per.


Injury Update
As we mentioned yesterday Cincinnati is still playing without spark-plug Billy Hamilton, who's on the DL with a bad shoulder. His absence certainly isn't doing the Reds any good.


Dodgers-Reds Thursday Free Picks
We hit the daily double on yesterday's game with LA on the run line and the OVER, and with Greinke going today, and the Dodgers bats looking a little better as of late, we like the visitors as our MLB pick against the run line again. Also, these two starting pitchers are both producing more UNDERS than OVERS this season, so we'll play that trend on the total.

MLB Picks: Los Angeles on the run line and UNDER seven runs (+110) at Heritage

comment here