Brewers to Pull Small Upset Against Cardinals Tonight

Milwaukee Brewers players gathered around

Charles Stark

Thursday, April 20, 2017 2:11 PM GMT

The Cardinals have won three games in a row at home and today they travel to take on the Brewers. Milwaukee is coming off a very tough loss in the last inning against Chicago and look to bounce back tonight. Oddsmakers have made the visitors a small road favorite but can Milwaukee pull the minor upset?

St. Louis Cardinals

Carlos Martinez gets the start for St. Louis and comes in with a 3.57 ERA and 1.42 whip in three starts so far this season. It makes sense for him to be the favorite in this spot and he has pitched very well against Milwaukee over the past few years with a 1.53 ERA against them in 14 games pitched with the Brewers hitting just .228 against him. 

However, his counterpart today should be able to put up some good numbers against a St. Louis team that is struggling at the plate. Currently, the Cardinals are hitting just .206 as a team which ranks dead last in major league baseball. Although they have won their last three games they’ve only managed to score six runs in those contests and have relied on strong starting pitching to get them three 2-1 wins in a row versus the Pirates. As well, their bullpen has struggled with a 6.69 ERA while allowing batters to hit .297 against them, both ranking last in the National League.  Martinez is a very good pitcher but all things considered, I believe this is a good spot to fade the Cardinals.

 

Milwaukee Brewers

Zach Davies takes the mound for the Brewers and comes in with a gaudy 8.79 ERA and 2.02 whip in three appearances this season.  He is much better though than these numbers over the past few seasons and has a respectable 3.95 ERA at home with batters hitting .247 against him.  He should also come in with some confidence against the light-hitting Cardinals with whom he has had some success in that same time span with a 1.66 ERA in three appearances.  

In those games, the Cards are hitting just .188 against him.  At the plate, Milwaukee has been surprising this year and rank third in OPS in MLB, but they do strike out at a pretty high rate.  Their bullpen has been decent with a 2.93 ERA so far this season.  For me, this comes down to value, and although it is never easy to go against Martinez I think Milwaukee is actually the better team so this is a good spot to back them at home against their rivals.

 

St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers

Oddsmakers have come out making Milwaukee around a +115 underdog across the board and for my MLB pick, I will take them in this spot.  Martinez has the edge over Davies but all other statistics point the Brewers.

 

Free MLB Pick: Milwaukee Brewers +105Best Line Offered: at Intertops

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