Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.
Two pitchers that are probably better than their recent form and two mediocre offenses could produce a sneaky ‘under’ Tuesday night in the City of Brotherly Love when Kyle Lohse and the Milwaukee Brewers (31-48, 16-22 away) pay a visit to fellow right-hander Aaron Harang and the Philadelphia Phillies (27-52, 18-23 home) in the third game of a four-game series from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA at 7:05 ET on FOX Sports - Wisconsin.
The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 8 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at a positive +105.
Two Worst Records in Major Leagues
This is a matchup of the teams with the two worst records in baseball and the only two Major League teams with winning percentages below .400! The Phillies have been the worst MLB picks so far at 27-52, which has them in last place in the National League East, and they are 5½ games from escaping the basement as that is the margin between them and the fourth place Miami Marlins, who themselves have been nose-diving lately.
The Brewers meanwhile are last in the National League Central, an identical 5½ games from getting out of the cellar as that is what separates them from the fourth place Cincinnati Reds. Milwaukee holds the dubious distinction of current having the largest gap in the majors behind first place, trailing the St. Louis Cardinals by a whopping 21½ games. The Brewers did put some separation between themselves and the Phillies be winning the first two games of this series.
Facing Phillies Helps
Few pitchers in the Major Leagues have been as disappointing as Lohse has been for Milwaukee, as he currently owns the worst ERA in the entire league among qualified starting pitchers at 6.28 and yet the Brewers continue to send him out every fifth day. So is the Brewers’ confidence that the 36-year-old veteran, who is 4-9 with a 1.35 WHIP to go along with the lofty ERA, will figure things out a bit misguided?
Well, maybe not! You see, Lohse still has a very nice command ratio with 66 strikeouts vs. only 20 walks in 91.2 innings, and while he was never a big strikeout guy, his current whiff rate is the best that it has been since 2006. The problem has been the home run ball as Lohse has allowed a disturbing 19 bombs already in 16 starts.
That means that he has a chance to actually be effective if he can keep the ball in the yard, and facing the Phillies helps in that regard as Philadelphia is dead last in the majors in runs scored with just 3.33 runs per game, and a key reason for that is ranking second to last in the bigs with only 49 home runs in 79 games.
Good Home Numbers for Harang
Now, Harang is probably happy to see the calendar flip over to July as he had a month of June he would rather forget, going 0-5 in his five starts during the month with a 7.28 ERA and 1.52 WHIP while allowing at least four earned runs in every outing. To give you an idea of just how good Harang had been before that however, consider that he still owns a fine 3.56 ERA and 1.15 WHIP overall despite his 4-10 record.
Moreover, although Harang is 2-5 at home, he has a spiffy 2.89 ERA with 41 strikeouts vs. just 11 walks in his eight starts here at Citizens Bank Park. So can he regain that fine form again here? Well it is certainly possible considering he has allowed three runs or less in seven of his last eight career starts vs. the Brewers and he is now facing a Milwaukee lineup averaging only 3.38 runs per game vs. right-handed pitchers on the road this season.
Trending the ‘under’
Finally, the ‘under’ is now 25-11-2 in the Brewers’ last 38 games vs. starters with a WHIP of 1.15 or less, as well as 12-3-1 in their last 16 games following a win.
Given the expected improvement by the starting pitchers tonight vs. a couple of modest offenses, look for those ‘under’ patterns to continue when Milwaukee visits Philadelphia on Wednesday.
MLB Pick: Brewers, Phillies ‘under’ 8 (+105)