Brewers vs. Giants MLB Picks: Don't Expect Home Run Derby Preview by The Bay

Mike Spector

Last Updated: July 17, 2022 5:42 AM EDT • 2 min 48 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

ATLANTA, GA - JUNE 20: Logan Webb #62 of the San Francisco Giants pitches during the fourth inning against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park on June 20, 2022 in Atlanta, Georgia. Todd Kirkland/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Todd Kirkland / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

The Milwaukee Brewers and San Francisco Giants meet in the finale of a four-game series, which serves as one of the last games before the All-Star break. Check out our Brewers-Giants picks.

This series between the Brewers and Giants has been a potential playoff preview, and it's one of just two games on Sunday's MLB slate featuring two 47-plus-win teams. Milwaukee looks to salvage a split of the four-game set after dropping two of the first three.

Here are my MLB picks and predictions for Sunday’s game between the Brewers and Giants (odds via PointsBet and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Brewers vs. Giants Game Info

Date: Sunday, July 17, 4:05 p.m. ETTV: Bally Sports Wisconsin, NBC Sports Bay Area, MLB NetworkLocation: Oracle Park, San Francisco, CAWeather: 68 degrees, 10% chance of precipitation, 17-mph wind out to center field

Brewers vs. Giants Odds

Brewers vs. Giants Odds Analysis

The Giants enter this game as favorites on the Moneyline at around -145. The sharp action is coming in on San Francisco, with 89% of the handle on just 60% of tickets riding with the home team.

The total opened at 7.5 and remains there, with the betting public relatively split on the Over/Under; 56% of the handle on 57% of tickets is on the Over.

Brewers vs. Giants Projected Pitchers

Aaron Ashby (2-6, 4.37 ERA, 1.47 WHIP) vs. Logan Webb (8-3, 2.82 ERA, 1.11 WHIP)

Sunday was supposed to be Jason Alexander’s eighth Major League start, but he was scratched late Saturday night in favor of Ashby. Though there has been no reason given for the switch, the move is peculiar given that Alexander threw only 73 pitches across four innings in a rain-shortened outing Tuesday, and Ashby just threw 101 pitches Wednesday.

Webb is coming off a brilliant start against the Arizona Diamondbacks in which he pitched six scoreless innings, and he's allowed just one earned run over his previous 14 innings. Webb is 6-2 with a 2.37 ERA in 10 home starts this season.

Brewers vs. Giants Picks

Run line: Giants -1.5 (+145 via PointsBet)????Over/Under: Under 7.5 (-110 via BetMGM)???Player prop: Darin Ruf to hit a home run (Off)???

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Brewers vs. Giants RL Pick

Giants -1.5 (+145)

The trends suggest the Brewers are the right side, as Milwaukee is 11-5 against the spread as a road underdog, while the Giants are 12-29 when laying 1.5 runs as home favorites. In addition, entering Saturday's third game of the series, the Brewers were 5-4 as road underdogs against right-handed starting pitchers, equating to a +23.9% ROI.

However, we can't trust the young Ashby on three days' rest after throwing more than 100 pitches in his previous outing. Ashby hasn't completed five innings in four of his last five starts, and he's struggled with command all season, walking more than three batters in six of his 11 starts.

Brewers vs. Giants O/U Pick

Under 7.5 (-110)

Webb has been one of the hottest pitchers in baseball over his last seven starts. Though he is just 3-2 in that span, he's pitched to a minuscule 1.38 ERA and has recorded quality starts in each of his last six.

Webb's home-road splits are fascinating, as he has a 2.37 home ERA compared to a 3.35 ERA on the road. However, his OBA and WHIP are 33 and 17 points higher, respectively, at home. That's because Webb has not allowed a single home run in 60 2/3 home innings but has been tagged for seven home runs in 51 innings on the road.

Thus, he makes you beat him by stringing several hits together, something that the Brewers have not been good at lately, as they rank 24th in batting average (.222) over the last 14 days.

Brewers vs. Giants Prop Bet

Darin Ruf to hit a home run (OFF)

Ruf has just nine home runs on the season, but he's homered in consecutive games against Milwaukee, so we are riding the hot streak. Ashby has allowed home runs in six of his last seven starts. Watch out for the odds to be released for Ruf's home run prop when the Giants announce Sunday's lineup, which he should feature in as one of the team's right-handed platoon bats.

Where to Bet on Brewers vs. Giants Bets

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

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Brewers-Giants picks from 7/17/2022 at 9:46 a.m. ET.

Written By:
Mike Spector

I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.