Brewer's Peralta vs. Wainwright & Cards Means Bet Under 6.5

Ross Benjamin

Friday, August 1, 2014 2:22 PM GMT

The Brewers and Cardinals square off tonight in the opening game of a critical NL Central series. Read our MLB betting article which breaks down the handicapping specifics of this matchup and is concluded with a MLB free pick on the total.

Huge Series in the NL Central
The Cardinals will host the Brewers on Friday at Busch Stadium in St. Louis with the first pitch scheduled for 8:15 PM ET. According to MLB betting odds the Cardinals are a -170 money line home favorite and the posted total is 6.5. These teams have seen their last 6-meetings this season all go over the total, and there was an average 11.2 runs per game scored. The Cardinals have taken 5 of the 9-games played in 2014 versus the Brewers.

 

Today’s Starting Pitchers
The Brewers will send 25-year old right-hander Wily Peralta to the mound for the opening game of this series. Peralta has been in terrific form over his previous 3-starts, going 3-0 against the money, with an excellent 1.37 ERA, and a 0.86 WHIP. Peralta has gone 8-2 against the money in his last 10-starts, and has been the beneficiary of an average of 6.8 runs scored per game scored by the Brewers in those 10-outings. He’s gone 2-0 against the money versus the Cardinals in 2014 with a microscopic 0.68 ERA. On a negative note, he’s gone 0-2 against the money in his career at St. Louis with a 6.94 ERA.

The Cardinals will counter with their ace Adam Wainwright. The veteran right-hander has gone an outstanding 16-5 against the money this season, and has posted an excellent 1.92 ERA in those 21-starts. Wainwright has been unbelievable in his last 5-starts at home versus the Brewers, tossing 4 complete games, and posting a superb 1.05 ERA.

 

Brewers Need to Straighten the Ship
Milwaukee has seen their comfortable lead in the NL Central dissipate due in large part to going 9-17 in their last 26-games. They’ve seen each of their last 6-games all go under the total. The Brewers have more than held their own on the road this season going 30-26. Milwaukee is 0-5 in their last 5-games on the road versus an opponent with a winning record. The Brewers have gone under the total in 7 of their last 8-games on the road when facing a right-handed starting pitcher.

 

Cardinals Gearing Up for Stretch Run
As is usually the case at the trading deadline, the Cardinals have gone all in with their attempt to be a part of postseason play. They’ve really bolstered their starting rotation with the acquisitions of Justin Masterson from the Indians, and John Lackey from the Red Sox in recent days. Granted they still have 55 regular season games remaining, but this still shapes up to be a critical home series against the division leader. The Cardinals head into today 2.0-games behind the Brewers for the top spot in the division. They still have 10-games remaining this season versus Milwaukee, and 6 of those will take place at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals have gone over the total in just 6 of their last 22-games at home.

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Final Analysis
Neither one of these teams is exactly tearing the cover off the ball right now.  Both of these starting pitchers enter today in top form. The total is this low for a reason, and it’s always enticing for the general public make a MLB wager on over the number as a result. I have the slightest of leans for this one to be a low scoring affair.

Free MLB Pick: Brewers/Cardinals to go under 6.5 runs