Betting Picks: Brew Crew Serves Up Value Versus Cardinals

Jay Pryce

Wednesday, June 14, 2017 1:51 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jun. 14, 2017 1:51 PM UTC

Matt Garza and Mike Leake duel as the Cardinals host the Brewers in the third of a four-game series at Busch Stadium Wednesday night (8:15 p.m. ET). What's the play? Check out our take here.

Milwaukee Brewers (34-32)

The Brewers are the fourth most profitable team in MLB away from home in 2017, returning 30 percent profit to backers at +137 average odds. They own a 17-13 record on the road, as opposed to a 17-19 mark at Miller Park. Pitching is the key factor. The staff relishes trips outside of the hitter-friendly park, allowing 4.13 runs per game versus 5.08 in Milwaukee.

Matt Garza, who gets the nod from manager Craig Counsell Wednesday night, highlights the staff’s home/away splits. Garza owns a 2.89 ERA on the road, while recording a 4.50 mark at Miller Park. This will be the right-handers first start since June 3, activated from the 10-day DL Tuesday after sustaining a bruised chest. Overall, the right-hander is 2-2 with a 3.83 ERA on the year.

Busch Stadium has not been kind to Garza over his 11-year career. He is 1-3 with a 5.94 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in seven career starts. Four of these outings have come in Milwaukee uniform with the Brew Crew going 1-3 over all. Garza and the bullpen allow 5.75 runs per game, supported with 2.75 on average.

The Brewers have had little luck conjuring upsets away from Miller Park behind Garza. They are 11-22 SU as a road underdog in the right-hander’s career, outscored by 1.33 runs per game. When the odds are longer than +120, the record falls to 4-16 SU, losing by 2.2 runs per contest. Garza hopes the Brewers above-average road play helps yield a better result.


St. Louis Cardinals (30-33)

The Cardinals split a double-header with the Milwaukee on Tuesday. An 8-5 defeat in the follow-up contest snapped a four-game win streak for St. Louis. The loss dropped the Cardinals home record in the matchup to 2-3 overall. One more loss at Busch Stadium will equal the highest number of home defeats to the Brew Crew in a season since 2011. The Cardinals are 32-20 during this stretch.

Mike Leake commands the hill for skipper Mike Matheny. The right-hander is 5-5 with a 2.70 ERA in 12 starts. Leake has struggled in his last three outings, gifting 11 earned runs on 22 hits in 18.2 innings.

Leake has picked up the win in three straight starts against the Brewers. Lifetime, he is 5-4 with a 4.21 ERA in 14 outings. Milwaukee’s current roster is hitting a lowly .179 against (7-for-39).

The Cardinals have burned bettors behind Leake as home chalk in his career. The team is 4-9 SU, losing nearly 50 percent investments at -155 average odds. Leake and the pen do a good job overall, yielding 3.69 runs per game. The Cards fail to produce many runs, however, crossing the plate 3.54 times on average. Only one win is versus a team with a winning record in five attempts.


Final Analysis

There is plenty of value on the Brew Crew at plus-money in this spot on the MLB Odds. The Cardinals are 2-12 SU at home behind Leake in the last calendar year. Garza doesn’t instill much confidence, but the team has yielded just seven runs in three road starts this season. We’re betting the lower numbers continue against a Cardinals lineup averaging 4.11 runs per contest (26th in MLB). Milwaukee’s 4-16 SU lifetime record as hefty road dogs behind Garza is also troubling, but the sticks should do well against Leake who is searching for an answer of late.

Free MLB Pick: Brewers +161Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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