Braves Will Surprise Mets in Series Finale

Matt Kemp of the Braves

Jake Walker

Thursday, April 6, 2017 2:59 AM UTC

Thursday, Apr. 6, 2017 2:59 AM UTC

The Braves finish their three-game series with the Mets at Citi Field. The Mets are at -155 on the MLB odds board while the Braves are at +145 and the total has been set at 7.5.

Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Atlanta Braves

The Braves lost the season opener 6-0 last Monday. Julio Teheran threw six scoreless innings but the Atlanta bullpen issued five walks in a six-run bottom of the seventh. Ian Krol took the loss after giving up three earned runs in 0.1 innings. 

As of this writing, the Braves rank 30th in the majors with zero runs scored, 24th with a .212 batting average and 27th with zero home runs. Atlanta is 28th in MLB with a 6.75 ERA and 29th with a 1.88 WHIP. 


New York Mets

Noah Syndergaard has seven strikeouts without a walk in six innings before leaving the game with a blister. Asdrubal Cabrera singled home the go-ahead run in the six-run seventh and Hansel Robles got the win after working a perfect inning.

The Mets currently rank 15th in the majors with six runs scored, 20th with a .233 batting average and 28th with zero home runs. New York leads the majors with a 0.00 ERA and they're 3rd with an 0.78 WHIP.


Pitching Matchup
Jaime Garcia (10-13, 4.67 ERA in 2016) vs. Matt Harvey (4-10, 4.86 ERA in 2016)

Jaime Garcia went 10-13 with a 4.67 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP with 150 strikeouts and 57 walks in 171.2 innings over 32 games (30 starts) for the Cardinals last season. Garcia was just 0-2 with an 8.00 ERA in two starts against the Mets. 

Matt Harvey underwent a thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in July and he has a lot to prove this season. Harvey was 4-10 with 4.86 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP with 76 strikeouts and 25 walks in 92.2 innings over just 17 starts and he struggled on Spring Training, going 0-4 with a 5.89 ERA. The right-hander went 1-2 with a 4.37 ERA in four starts against the Braves last year. 


Betting Trends

The Braves are 10-2 in their last 12 games against National League East opponents and 201-152 in all games against the Mets since 1997.

The Mets are 3-7 in Matt Harvey's last 10 starts and 9-10 in their last 19 home games against the Braves.


Final Analysis 

Can Matt Harvey be trusted after a poor performance last season, having a rib removed in July and a concerning spring? The Braves are off to a tough start but they hit Harvey hard last season and at +145 MLB odds there's plenty of value here. Garcia wasn't dominant in 2016 but a fresh start with a new team is exactly what he needs to get back on track. I'm adding the Braves +145 to my MLB picks.

Free MLB Pick: Braves +145
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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