Braves vs. Padres MLB Picks: Solid Pitching Matchup Points Towards Low-Scoring Game

Charles Stark

Wednesday, August 19, 2015 12:42 AM GMT

With both pitchers on the mound looking sharp recently, I'm going to back under the total when the Braves visit the Padres. In recent outings both Tyson Ross and Julio Teheran have been solid on the hill and I look for them to continue that type of pitching today in a tough hitters park.

Braves vs. Padres Odds
This line came out at 7 and then dropped to 6.5, which seems more about what I anticipated in this matchup. At most places under the 6.5 is at regular juice but at Pinnacle you get under the total at -108. Because this line dropped pretty early and this is not a marquee matchup I don't see the MLB odds moving very much before first pitch.

 

Atlanta Braves
JulioTeheran takes the mound for the Braves and comes in with a 4.44 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 123 strikeouts, and 8-6 record. He struggled a lot earlier this season but recently he has settled down and started to pitch like he is capable of and closer to his career ERA of 3.48 and 1.19 WHIP. In his last start against Arizona he allowed just one earned run off of just three hits in six innings. In his last three starts he has allowed just six earned runs total in 19 innings with no home runs. Also, in the last three games he has a 17/3 strikeout to walk ratio. I look for him to have another quality start today against the mediocre/poor offense in the Padres.

The Braves rank 27th in runs scored per game at 3.72, 28th in OPS at .677, and 16th in batting average hitting .252. Their team batting average is respectable and it actually goes up one point on the road. But most of their other offensive stats drop when they are traveling. Petco Park is not hitter friendly so look for the Braves to not do a lot of damage at the plate against a quality pitcher.

 

San Diego Padres
Tyson Ross takes the mound with a 3.40 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 155 strikeouts, and it 8-9 record. His name circled around quite a bit before the trade deadline but he never got dealt. At home he has been less than stellar with a 4.40 ERA but as mentioned recently he has looked sharp. He has not allowed any more than three runs in any of his last 10 starts, and he is coming off a solid outing in Colorado allowing just two earned runs off six hits, never easy place to pitch. He does tend to walk people from time to time but overall the guy can really be lights out. This is a favorable matchup for him today facing a weak hitting team in the Braves at home.

The Padres rank 20th in runs scored per game at 3.97, last in OPS at .672, and 28th and team batting average hitting just .241. Because of the difficulty of playing in Petco Park all their major offensive statistics go down at home. Recently there have been a little bit more proficient at the plate but Teheran has been real sharp and seems to have turned his season around. They might get a run or two but I don't anticipate them having a lot of quality at-bats.

Offensively we have two teams that are subpar and ranked from the middle to the bottom of the league in most offensive categories, don't expect a lot of runs in this contest.

This is simply an underrated pitching duel today between two guys proficient in keeping the run total down. San Diego has always been a very tough place for hitters and I don't see that trend deviating today. Look for a tight close game with a final of around 3-1, back the under with confidence.

MLB Pick: Under 6.5 (-108) at Pinnacle