Braves vs. Orioles Matchup Signals 'Over' Despite Big Names on the Mound

Charles Stark

Tuesday, July 28, 2015 11:16 AM GMT

It looks to me that this line on the total between the Braves and Orioles is going off of name recognition rather than statistics. Both of these pitchers have been less than sharp recently so look for a lot of quality at-bats today from both of these teams.

Odds
MLB odds makers came out with this game for a total of 7.5 which is a bit surprising to me. The over 7.5 came out at +100 but now at most books there is some juice attached to that. The best odds I have seen is at Pinnacle sports book where you get the over 7.5 at -105. As far as value goes I think this line is going to go to at least 8 before first pitch, and I just don't see this line going down.

 

Pitchers
For the Braves Julio Teheran has not had the season the Braves were hoping for so far and comes in with a 4.49 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. His road numbers are shocking with a 6.95 ERA and 1.78 WHIP as he has been roughed up in his last three road starts allowing 15 runs in just 19 innings. He has pitched a little bit better recently allowing eight runs over his last 16 innings total, but he still has managed to give up runs on a consistent basis. For the Orioles Ubaldo Jimenez will get the start and comes in with a 3.81 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. He has gotten shelled in his last two outings allowing seven runs in each for 14 runs total in just seven innings. Granted, those games were in Detroit and then in New York, but still that probably won't be easy to bounce back from even pitching at home. His home numbers are a lot more solid with a 2.06 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP, but I think the last two games have shown us he is starting to regress back to his career numbers of an ERA just under 4.00 and a 1.36 WHIP. He should have a better day on the mound that he did in those last two starts but don't look for the Braves to get shut out.

Don't miss out on Charles' preview of Pirates vs. Twins!

At the Plate
Although the Orioles and the Braves have struggled recently at the plate they have a good opportunity to break out today. Baltimore ranks ninth in the major leagues in runs scored per game with the Braves ranking 24th, and in OPS the Orioles again rank ninth with Atlanta ranking 26th. The Braves have had a tough run this year on the offensive side due to some injuries but Freeman being back should help the cause. Baltimore is a different monster at home and their overall ranking of ninth in runs scored and OPS both move up to fourth at home this season.

This number is simply too low in my estimation and I predict both these teams in the second game of the series should have a lot of quality at-bats today as compared to yesterday. Jimenez is going to have a tough time bouncing back from his last two ugly starts and Baltimore is one of the best hitting teams at home in the major leagues. Back the over in this interleague matchup.

MLB Pick: Over at Pinnacle