Braves vs. Marlins MLB Picks: Despite Teheran’s Bloated 4.74 ERA, Expect his 5-1 Starting Record vs. Miami to Continue

David Lawrence

Friday, May 15, 2015 12:48 PM GMT

Friday, May. 15, 2015 12:48 PM GMT

The Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins are both floundering in the National League East. They’ll matchup on the MLB betting lines on Friday and we have deemed the best value to be in run total odds.

The Atlanta Braves Can Win Because…
If you look at starter Julio Teheran’s last three appearances and make one specific connection in terms of a pattern that’s in evidence, you will conclude that he’s going to have a very good start in this game. Teheran’s overall ERA isn’t very impressive, but look at his recent series of performances. On April 28, he was terrible, giving up seven runs (yet only three of them earned) against Washington. On May 3 against Cincinnati, Teheran was brilliant, shutting out the Reds in six innings while giving up only three hits. Then, on May 9 against Washington, Teheran struggled again. He gave up six runs on 10 hits in five innings. If Teheran’s hot-and-cold trend is going to continue in this game, that means he’s going to be very good.

The other thing to look at with Teheran is that against the Marlins, he pitched really well back on April 6, at the beginning of the regular season. Teheran gave up just one run in six innings. He walked only one hitter and was able to thwart Miami at every turn. Teheran’s recent woes, you will note, came against Washington, an elite team (or at least a team expected to be elite in the fullness of time). Miami gives Teheran a much more favorable matchup, one that can and will be exploited in this game.

Check out another of Dave's MLB picks: Angels vs. Orioles

The Miami Marlins Can Win Because…
They're in ownership of the better starting pitcher in this game & are favored by MLB odds. While Teheran carries a bloated 4.74 ERA, Miami starter David Phelps has a very solid 2.90 ERA. He has allowed more than two runs in only one start this season. He’s given up no more than two runs in each of his last five starts. He has pitched at least six complete innings in each of his last four starts. He’s a pitcher who is in a groove right now, and shows no real signs of slipping. If you could nitpick just a little bit, Phelps walked three in his May 4 start against Washington, but he pitched around that wildness and contained a very imposing batting order. Phelps hasn’t dominated, but he’s been so consistent in pitching around a few hits each game that he’s going to continue to be a comfortable pitcher in a first-and-second, two-out situation. He’s going to be in a position to perform at the standard he’s set. With Atlanta struggling to win close games, Phelps should have a good chance of keeping the Braves down.

 

Outlook
Teheran has struggled this season but he does pitch well against the Marlins. For his career, he’s 5-1 against them, holding them to a .239 batting average. He’s got a healthy 2.64 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. With that in mind, combined with how Phelps has been pitching this season, we’ll go under with our MLB picks.

MLB Pick: Under at GT Bets

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