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DENVER, CO - SEPTEMBER 7: Logan Webb #62 of the San Francisco Giants hits a second inning RBI double against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on September 7, 2021 in Denver, Colorado. Dustin Bradford/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Dustin Bradford / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

The Atlanta Braves are a tough MLB pick to nail down, but they’re the right choice for Friday’s game versus the San Francisco Giants.

Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants

Friday, September 17, 2021 - 09:45 PM EDT at Oracle Park

Who are the Atlanta Braves, really? Is it the team that won nine straight games in August to put a stranglehold on the National League East? Or is it the team that’s gone 8-12 ever since? The real answer lies somewhere in between, but now that the Braves (76-68, minus-5.83 units) have cooled off, they might be a value MLB pick this Friday when they visit the San Francisco Giants, the first team to clinch a playoff spot this year.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aooMuxgQGfk

Atlanta’s plus-98 run differential suggests they “should” be an 83-61 team at this point. The regression angels are lurking. It’s a moral imperative to make this contrarian value bet if the computers are right. FiveThirtyEight’s 54-percent lean towards the Giants work out to –117 using the scrumptious SBR Odds Converter; the Braves have just opened as +133 road dogs on the MLB odds board at (visit our Sportsbook Review), so if the sharps haven’t already scooped up all that value by the time you read this, you might want to consider putting Atlanta in your baseball picks.

I Can Get Us A Rainout

Before we dip too far into those deep pockets, let’s consider the situation on the ground. The Braves come into this matchup with the rare advantage of an extra day’s rest – thanks to the soggy field conditions that forced the delay and eventual postponement of Thursday’s tilt with the Colorado Rockies. Rest isn’t as important in baseball as in other sports, but it does mean Atlanta’s No. 10-ranked bullpen (plus-3.6 WAR at FanGraphs) will be fresh as a daisy.

Jorge Soler #12, Guillermo Heredia #38, and Joc Pedersen #22 of the Atlanta Braves. Edward M. Pio Roda/Getty Images/AFP

San Francisco, meanwhile, will be coming off their series finale with the San Diego Padres. They went into that matchup with the best record in the majors at 95-51, good for an amazing 32.54 units in profit. The Giants were also white-hot at 9-1 in their previous 10 games, the only blemish being on Wednesday when they went with spot-starter Dominic Leone in their 9-6 loss to the Padres (–106 away). Wait, what the heck are we getting ourselves into here?

Opposite Day

It’s all about value. San Francisco’s nine-game win streak included sweeps of the Colorado Rockies and Chicago Cubs, two teams whose playoff hopes expired a long time ago. Atlanta’s recent slump includes a three-game sweep at Chavez Ravine, courtesy of the Los Angeles Dodgers – who have also just clinched a playoff spot. The betting public may be overlooking the disparity here in the strength of schedule. Don’t make the same mistake.

Logan Webb #62 of the San Francisco Giants. Dustin Bradford/Getty Images/AFP

The pitching matchup is a microcosm for the game itself. Logan Webb (2.90 FIP) has been brilliant for the Giants, checking in at No. 2 on the public money charts with 11.82 units in earnings on a team record of 18-4. But Ian Anderson (3.95 FIP) has also held his own for the Braves, essentially breaking even at plus-0.16 units on a record of 11-10. We did say this was a value pick. Make it a suitably small bet, and may the sphere be with you.

MLB Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.