Braves vs. Dodgers MLB Picks: With Momentum Mismatch, Lay the Runs & Take the Money

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, May 27, 2015 1:28 PM GMT

Tonight the Braves & Dodgers meet once again to complete their series, and after extensive analysis; I have found a great MLB pick for tonight's matchup you can profit with. 

Atlanta Braves (A. Wood) vs. LA Dodgers (Greinke) (-1 ½ R/+110) 10:10 ET
The Atlanta Braves continue their 3-game set with the LA Dodgers in the 3rd of 7 road games to close the month of May. After beating up on the likes of Miami and Milwaukee, the Braves entered this set on a 7-2 run.  Conversely, the LA Dodgers were on a 3-5 slide, being outscored 29-9.  But, the tables have turned with the onset of this series.  The Dodgers have won the first 2 games of this set by a combined score of 14-3, clearly signaling their offensive return, and tonight they're being favored by the MLB odds makers. Those 2 home field victories have also lifted the Dodgers to 21-6 on their home field, while extending their record vs. Atlanta at this site to 5-0. In those games, LA has outscored Atlanta 27-10 for an average margin of victory of 5.4 to 2.0 RPG.  

As predicted by their projected 74 wins this season, Atlanta is now suffering through a losing campaign.  This comes on the heels of declining from 96 to 79 wins the previous 2 seasons.  There is little reason to expect A. Wood to turn the tables in this pitching matchup.  Atlanta has won just 2 of 8 starts by Wood in which he has a 1.53 WHIP.  After a 3-start stretch, in which Wood went 0-2 with a 6.19 ERA, he turned the tables by allowing just 1 earned run in 7 IP of a 5-3 victory vs. Miami.  That, however, came at the start of the Miami losing streak, in which the Marlins have gone 3-13, averaging just 2.6 RPG.  A stomach virus prevented Wood from making his previous scheduled start, leaving him out of sync for this outing.  Not a good sign against the reborn LA bats.

Having righted their ship, expect full focus from the Dodgers, whose comfortable division lead has dwindled to 2 games against resurgent San Francisco.  The Dodgers front-loaded home schedule (27 home to 18 away, first 45 games) means their 21 home field victories is 4 more than any other MLB team.  Handing the ball to Zach Greinke virtually ensures continued success.  LA has won 7 of 9 Greinke starts.  Greinke has posted an MLB best, 1.48 ERA, as well as an MLB best .187 BAA, confirming that excellence is an outstanding 0.87 WHIP and .519 OPS (again among the tops in the league).  Four starts in the month of May have resulted in 28 13 IP with an allowance of just 3 ER.  In a pair of recent starts against Atlanta, Greinke worked 15 IP with a 1.60 ERA and 20Ks.  

We follow this clear pitching and team momentum mismatch with the following run line numbers that allow us to make this play at an underdog price.  Five of 5 (100%) recent Atlanta losses have come by 2 or more runs.  For the LA Dodgers, 17 of 21 (81%) home wins have come by 2 or more runs and 22 of their 28 (79%) overall victories have come by 2 or more runs.  When Greinke takes the mound, 6 of his 7 victories (86%) have been by 2 or more runs with the Dodgers outscoring the opposition 38-16 in those 7 games.  For your MLB picks, lay the runs, take the money.  Meet me in the winner’s circle!

MLB Pick: Take LA Dodgers at 5Dimes