Braves Looking For Sweep, Padres Looking To Save Face: Recipe For Over Pick

Matt Kemp

Willie Bee

Thursday, September 1, 2016 1:25 PM GMT

A very short baseball betting card includes one-afternoon contest in Atlanta where the Braves have their brooms ready to sweep the San Diego Padres out of town.

Talk about your games that mean nothing to a pennant race. Plus, it's being played midday on a Thursday afternoon in a stadium that could barely draw 30,000 fans if you promised naked bodies, hip-hop stars, and free beer.

Welcome to the getaway match for the three-game series in Atlanta between the Braves and San Diego Padres. It's an extremely short MLB odds board today leading into a big Labor Day weekend to begin the final push for the postseason. These two begin the final full month of the fixture with a 12:10 PM (ET) first pitch down in A-Town. Jarred Cosart is the expected starter for the Pads while the ATL's send Mike Foltynewicz out to the hill. The morning nickel line has the Braves -139 with 8½ for the total.

This series began Tuesday when the Braves used a big 3rd-inning and Julio Teheran's right arm for a 7-3 victory as decided -190 chalk. It was more of the same last night when Matt Wisler handled the mound duties and the Atlanta lineup once again broke out with an 8-1 final that pushed a 9 run total.

The Padres have won the season series the last few years, but only because they're 14-2 on the Left Coast. The Braves are 21-11 at home in the rivalry since 2007, six of the last nine here going over the totals.

 

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Braves Struggle To Win At Home Behind Foltynewicz
With the exception of one rough outing against the Phillies, Cosart has pitched pretty well for the Padres since coming over from Miami in the deadline deal that sent Andrew Cashner back to the Marlins. The biggest issue has been Cosart's inability to work deep into games, control issues that balloon his pitch count the main reason for that.

Those control problems were behind his poor showing against the Braves earlier this season, Cosart walking six and only making it two outs into the sixth of an eventual 6-5 Atlanta win. That game was in Miami, however, and his only appearance here in Atlanta was a real beauty, Cosart tossing seven scoreless frames in 2014 to earn the dubya.

Foltynewicz is coming off a dandy outing last Saturday in San Francisco, working into the eighth of a 3-1 Atlanta triumph. It marked his third win in four August road starts, the only damage coming on a Brandon Crawford solo homer. Foltynewicz has been effective at Turner Field overall this season, limiting batters to a sub-.200 average and posting a 3.69 ERA. That hasn't translated into wins for the Braves, however, the club 2-5 in the righthander's seven assignments at Turner Field.

 

Umpire Notes, Mother Nature & A Free Pick
Adrian Johnson is expected to call balls and strikes in the series finale, and the Texan checks in with a couple of strong trends on the season. Totals are running 16-5-2 O/U/P against the baseball odds when Johnson sets up behind the dish, 5-0-2 his last seven plate assignments. Contradicting that number is the fact the 'under' has prevailed four of his last six appearances behind the mask in Atlanta, the Braves winning five of those affairs. Home teams have enjoyed a nice 14-9 edge when Johnson has the plate this season, 8-1 as favorites up to -140.

Chances of a passing thunderstorm interrupting the game increase as the afternoon wears on. First pitch should find a muggy 87º reading on the thermometer the slightest of southerly breezes.

Sure, the Braves have taken the first two games of the series, and it has been very heavy-handed in favor of the home teams the past few years. Still, I can't really trust either side with my free baseball pick, and will instead get behind the lineups against these two former Houston hurlers.

 

Free MLB Pick: Padres-Braves Over 8½ (-110) 
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes
Season: 42-35 (+9.50)

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