Bottom-Feeding Dbacks & Phillies Still Make Good MLB Bets

Ross Benjamin

Saturday, July 26, 2014 12:48 PM GMT

Saturday, Jul. 26, 2014 12:48 PM GMT

Here’s an expert’s recommended bet for tonight, when the Phillies will host the Diamondbacks. According to MLB betting odds, Philadelphia are  -145 money line favorites & the posted total’s at 7.5. 

           
 

Pair of NL Bottom Feeders Clash
This will be the 2nd of a 3-game series between these National League clubs. The Phillies took the opener of the series last night 9-5.

 

Today's Starting Pitchers
Arizona will go with right-hander Josh Collmenter on the hill. The Diamondbacks hurler has gone an impressive 4-1 against the money line in his last 5-starts with a stellar 2.67 ERA, and none of those outings went over the run total. Collmenter has been a very profitable pitcher this season on an otherwise bad ball club. He’s gone 11-6 against the money line for the year, posted a respectable 3.78 ERA, and has made MLB bettors a net profit of 4.9 units. In his only start versus the Phillies this season Collmenter pitched 6.0 innings of scoreless baseball, allowed just 4-hits, struck out 5, and walked none.

The Phillies will counter with their ageless veteran Cliff Lee. The southpaw made his first start this past Monday since being placed on the disabled list during the third week of May. Unfortunately he wasn’t sharp at all in a 7-4 loss to the Giants. Lee was rocked for 6 earned runs and 12-hits in 5 2/3 innings. He’s seen 5 of his last 6-starts go over the total while posting a 4.19 ERA. The Phillies have gone just 1-5 at home this season with Lee as their starting pitcher, and have lost 5.6 units in those games. On a more positive note, Lee has gone 4-0 against the money line since 8/17/2011 when facing Arizona, and posted a stellar 2.89 ERA in those outings.

 

MLB Wagering Money Guzzlers
Barring a major miracle, neither of these teams will be playing postseason baseball in October. As a matter of fact they enter tonight with virtually identical records, Arizona at 44-59, and the Phillies a disappointing 45-58. The Diamondbacks have especially cost their MLB wagering backers dearly by losing 14.6 units for the season. Obviously the sportsbooks saw them as a team with higher expectations than the Phillies who’ve lost just 7.1 units with a comparable record. A lot of that disparity in MLB betting units lost for the Diamondbacks has come from being overvalued, in addition to playing poorly at home. Arizona has gone a dismal 21-31 at home where they’ve lost 13.9 of their 14.6 wagering units for the season.

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Final Handicapping Analysis
As I’ve illustrated in the previous paragraph, the Diamondbacks have pretty much held serve on the road in terms of MLB money line betting this season. However, what I failed to mention was the ineptitude of the Phillies at home. Philadelphia has gone a terrible 21-32 this season at First Citizen’s Ballpark, and lost their betting supporters a huge 13.0 units while doing so. In addition, the Arizona starter Josh Collmenter has displayed very good form in recent starts, and I question how physically sound Cliff Lee is right now. In my professional opinion, the MLB betting value here lies with the road underdog.

Free MLB Pick: Arizona +135 over Philadelphia

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