Both Picks for Monday Involve a Pitcher Named Clayton .... Coincidence?

Mark Lathrop

Monday, June 19, 2017 12:49 PM UTC

Monday, Jun. 19, 2017 12:49 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper, Mark Lathrop, is coming off of a very profitable 5-0-1 ATS weekend. Here he looks at two games Monday with heavy favorites to find value with the opposing pitchers.

[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]New York Mets Vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Clayton Kershaw has absolutely dominated the New York Mets over the years, yet odds breaching the -300 mark has our MLB handicapper passing the side. Here he gives another angle to profit on this matchup.

News flash: Clayton Kershaw is very good. Take that as a clue from Captain Obvious for how the rest of this pick is going to read. Kershaw is 8-1 against the Mets over his career with a 1.49 ERA and 0.915 WHIP. That is the obvious basis for the moneyline which currently resides at -315 at Bookmaker. That’s a little rich for my blood, but also a logical angle for taking the 'under' in this game, which can be found at 7 across the board. With the Mets flying cross country into this matchup off a game Sunday night I like the position Kershaw will be in even more to dominate the Mets.

That leaves Zack Wheeler as the other point of contention for taking the 'under' here. Wheeler is coming off of his worst game of the season, an 8-run stinker over just 1.2 innings against the Cubs. He was on a very good run up to that point and had given up less than 3 runs in 6 of his 7 starts. Wheeler’s split shows success on the road as well where he has a 3.51 FIP over 29.1 innings and 5 starts. No peripherals show that Wheeler’s last performance was anything but a fluke, so I’m looking for a bounce back in this game. The Mets’ bullpen also comes in rested after Jacob DeGrom pitched 8 innings on Sunday. I’m taking the 'under' of 7 at 5Dimes as one of my Monday MLB Picks of the Day.

MLB Free Pick: 'Under' 7Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3139427, "sportsbooksIds":[19,169,1275,999993,93], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]


San Diego Padres Vs. Chicago Cubs

Our MLB handicapper spots a line for a pitching matchup that is more of a tossup than the line indicates. He suggests playing the run line to back a heavy underdog Padres side in Chicago.

It’s late Sunday night and there is no total listed in this game being played at Wrigley Field, which tells me that the wind and weather is a concern to bookies. It is with that knowledge that I examine the pitchers on the mound, starting with San Diego’s Clayton Richard. Richard is a ground-ball specialist who carries a 58.3% ground-ball rate and insanely low 19.4% fly-ball rate. If there is a pitcher that negates the wind in Chicago it is Richard. The Cubs knew this of course and picked him up in 2015, before releasing him as he worked through thoracic outlet syndrome. Now Richard gets a chance to face his prior team and his low walk rate and 3.86 FIP suggests he is up to the task.

He’ll face Jon Lester of the Cubs who has accrued a 3.52 FIP on the season over 83.1 innings pitched. Lester allows 32.3% fly balls this year which could be an issue if the wind is going to affect batted balls. It’s not that I think that Lester will lose per se, but this game should be much closer than the line suggests because of the batted profiles of each pitcher. Look for Richard to have a bit of success in keeping this game close, which will be enough to cash the Padres +1.5 on the run line as another Monday MLB Pick of the Day.

Free MLB Pick: Padres +1.5Best Line Offered: Pinnacle

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3140680, "sportsbooksIds":[238,19,1096,626,93], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

comment here