Boring Matchup to Produce Exciting Value: Rays vs. White Sox Picks

Charles Stark

Monday, August 3, 2015 11:28 AM UTC

Monday, Aug. 3, 2015 11:28 AM UTC

With two solid starters on the mound I'm backing under the total when the Tampa Bay Rays meet the Chicago White Sox in Chicago. What we're getting in this matchup are two good pitchers against two of the poorer offenses in the major leagues. I look for both of these guys to have a nice day on the mound and keep the run totals down with more of a final of around 4-2. Don't expect a lot of offense today from either of these teams and for both offenses to be limited.

This line opened up by MLB odds makers at 8.5 and then dropped to 8, which is where it has settled. I don't think this line is going to move a lot because I can see opinions on both sides of how this game is going to go. Right now at under the total of 8 the best odds are at Pinnacle sports book at -113, and Heritage sports book at -110.

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Nathan Karns takes the mound for Tampa Bay and comes in with a 3.37 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. In his last 10 starts he's only had three subpar to bad outings allowing four runs two times in a row to the Angels back in early June and then allowing seven runs to the Royals and Kansas City. In those other seven start he has been lights out allowing only seven earned runs total in that span. On the road he has been very good with a 3.13 ERA and batters only hitting .207 against him.

For the White Sox Jose Quintana will get the start with a 3.52 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Like Karns he has been solid in his last 10 starts with only four subpar outings allowing three runs at Pittsburgh, three runs at Detroit, three runs at the Cubs, and then four runs against Kansas City at home. In his last four home starts, including the one against Kansas City, he has only allowed nine total earned runs against four of the best hitting teams in baseball in the Astros, Rangers, Blue Jays, and the aforementioned Royals.

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At the plate
It seems the White Sox have been a hitting the ball a little bit better recently, but overall along with Tampa Bay these are two of basically the worst offenses in the major leagues. The White Sox rank 24th in runs scored per game with Tampa Bay ranked 28th, and the bad thing about that for the White Sox is they actually average less runs per game at home. In OPS they are right next to each other in the overall rankings with Tampa Bay ranked 24th again, and the White Sox rank 25th. Yet again though the White Sox at home have a lower OPS average than they do on the road.

Although this is not the most exciting game on the board I think there is a lot of value on taking these two pitchers to have two quality starts. Combined with the fact they are facing two subpar to poor offenses and were looking at a low-scoring affair, back the under with confidence.

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