Blue Jays vs. Rangers MLB Pick: Shade the 'Over' Despite Surprisingly High Total in Texas

Charles Stark

Wednesday, August 26, 2015 11:37 AM GMT

I was surprised at the number on the MLB odds for the total of this game considering the statistics of these pitchers. But with these 2 offenses clicking I look for a high-scoring affair.

MLB odds
MLB odds makers came out with a total of 8.5 for this game and that's what it is across the odds board. The best odds on over this total is at Pinnacle Sports at -105. Although this number seems a bit high just considering the fact that David Price is on the mound, I think odds makers are on top of this one and in my opinion over is the play here.

 

Toronto Blue Jays
David Price gets the start for Toronto and has been fantastic this season with a 2.40 ERA, 1.08 whip, 171 strikeouts, and a 12-4 record. In his last 10 starts he has only had a couple subpar outings but for the most part has been extremely good this season. I don't expect the Rangers to do a ton of damage today at the plate but they should be able to have some solid at-bats. In his last two starts Price has given up five total earned runs off of 17 hits in 15 innings showing that he is human.

Toronto ranks first in the major leagues in runs scored per game at 5.40, first in OPS at .777, and seventh in batting average hitting .264 as a team. Most of their important offensive statistics go up in Toronto but they are still formidable on the road. They hit right-handers very well and should have some good success today against Colby Lewis, look for them to have even more production at the plate than they had yesterday.

 

Texas Rangers
Colby Lewis takes the mound for the Rangers with a 4.29 ERA, 1.18 whip, 116 strikeouts, and a 14-5 record. In his last 10 starts he only had two really bad outings where he gave up 17 runs and 22 hits total against the Angels and Houston both times at home. He is coming off an excellent start against the Tigers in Detroit where he allowed zero earned runs in seven innings. For the most part he is pretty consistent in giving up runs and he can give them up in a hurry, expect the Blue Jays to do some damage against him today.

Texas ranks sixth in runs scored per game at 4.46, 11th in OPS at .725, and 10th in team batting average inning .255 as a team. All of their major statistics go up at home significantly. Their team batting average goes from .244 on the road to .267 at home and their OPS jumps from .693 on the road to .761 in Texas. They rank in the middle of the American League facing left-handers and Price is one of the best in the business. Still, they are such a tough home hitting team and as mentioned I expect them to get at least a few runs at least with some good plate appearances.

This should be a real fun one to watch and I expect more runs on the board people probably anticipate. Don't be scared of that high number of 8.5 and look for both of these offenses to have some nice quality at-bats today.

MLB Pick: Back the Over.