Blue Jays vs. Braves MLB Pick: Buehrle & Teheran to Keep Things 'Under'

Charles Stark

Tuesday, September 15, 2015 11:53 AM GMT

With the Toronto Blue Jays leading the league offensively it is not easy to take them under the total unless the situation is just right. I think we have that today and for one of your MLB picks I suggest backing under the total between the Toronto Blue Jays and Atlanta Braves. We have two solid pictures on the mound and should see this game a lot lower the most people anticipate.

 

MLB odds
MLB odds makers came out with this game at 8 1/2 but right now the line has settled at eight across the board. The good news is you can get some plus money on under the total like at Pinnacle Sports at +104. These are good odds on what should be an underrated pitching matchup.

 

Toronto Blue Jays
Mark Buehrle get's the start for Toronto with a 3.72 ERA, 1.21 whip, 80 strikeouts, and a 14-7 record. The 15 year veteran has had a solid season so far and is just been steady in that rotation. On the road his numbers do jump quite a bit to a 4.31 ERA and batters hitting just above .300 against him, but he is facing a pretty weak offense today so he should be able to keep the run total down. He just got done facing some really good hitting teams in the Rangers, Tigers, and Red Sox in which he allowed 11 total earned runs in just 15 innings. He should see a lot more success on the mound today.

Offensively Toronto ranks first in the major leagues in runs scored per game at 5.52, first in OPS at .789, and fifth in batting average hitting .267 as a team. The only good news for pitchers when facing this extremely tough Blue Jays lineup is that their statistics offensively drop on the road. They go from hitting .279 at home to .256 on the road, and their OPS drops almost 70 points between being in Toronto and when they travel. Also, without Tulowitzki in the lineup should lessen their offensive punch just a touch.

 

Atlanta Braves
Julio Teheran takes the mound for the Braves with a 4.38 ERA, 1.32 whip, 147 strikeouts, and a 10-7 record. After having a terrible outing at home versus the Yankees in which he allowed eight earned runs in just four innings he came back with two really solid performances allowing one run in each game versus the Nationals and Philadelphia, both road games. He is in for a tough contest today against a very good Toronto team but at home he has been solid with a 3.24 ERA and batters hitting only .212 against him.

Offensively Atlanta ranks last in the major leagues in runs scored per game at 3.59, last in OPS at .673, and 21st in batting average hitting .251 as a team. They are arguably the worst hitting team in baseball along with a couple other contenders, if I can use that word. Whether they are home or away their statistics do not change much, but they do hit a little bit better in Atlanta. I expect them to score today but not enough to help get over to the total.

Two teams heading in very different directions this season in the Blue Jays and the Braves. I like for both of these pitchers to have pretty decent outings and keep the number below this medium-size total of eight. Expect the final of around 4-2 so I will be backing the under with one of my MLB picks.