I can see why a lot of people would want to jump all 'over' the Blue Jays-Angels run total betting line, after that offensive onslaught yesterday, but I am here to prove why that way of thinking is wrong.
Sunday's MLB Odds: Blue Jays vs. Angels
MLB odds makers came out with this line at 8 with regular juice but since then the line has moved to plus money on under the total or 8.5 at some places. I think that is the natural tendency for people to go when there a lot of runs scored in the previous games. But for me this just provides good value on taking under the total and the best odds right now are at Pinnacle sports at under the total 8 at +106.
More of Charles' MLB Picks: Diamondbacks vs. Reds, Sunday
Toronto Blue Jays
Knuckleballer R.A. Dickey takes the mound for the Blue Jays with a 4.14 ERA, 1.28 whip, 99 strikeouts, and a 7-10 record. The 12 year veteran has been hot and cold in his last 10 starts but hasn't been roughed up too much. In his last outing against the Phillies he allowed five earned runs off a nine hits in just four innings. Those are statistics I like though because it puts Dickey, a veteran major leaguer, in a bounce back spot in which I think he will thrive.
Toronto ranks first in runs scored per game at 5.27, first in OPS at .769, and eighth in team batting average hitting .260. They are arguably the best hitting team in baseball and have had a lot of success against Los Angeles so far in this series. Today though, they face a pretty tough pitcher in Garrett Richards, and on top of that all their offensive statistics go down on the road considerably. I don't look for them to get shut out, but I do look for them to not have nearly as many quality at-bats as they have had the past two days.
Los Angeles Angels
Garrett Richards takes the mound for the Angels with a 3.50 ERA, 1.20 whip, 117 strikeouts, and a 12-9 record. He is having a solid season and in his last 10 starts the most runs he is given up in any contest is just four. At home he has been excellent with a 2.53 ERA and batters hitting under .200 against him. As mentioned, I don't expect him to shut down a great offensive team like the Blue Jays completely down but he is good enough the battle out of jams and keep them in check.
Los Angeles is ranked 18th in runs scored per game at 4.02, 23rd in OPS at .695, and 25th in team batting average hitting .244. They have really struggled these last two games and I don't expect it to get easier today against Dickey. Their run total average per game actually goes down at home, and in the last 10 games they've only scored over four runs just twice.
The easy choice for MLB Picks on this game would be to back 'over' considering the way Toronto has been putting up runs and the fact that Los Angeles is probably due. I'm not going that way though and I like both these pitchers to keep these offenses down in the numbers, back the under with confidence.
MLB Picks: Under 8