Blue Jays & Orioles Flying Under the Total

Toronto Blue Jays 2017

Doug Upstone

Saturday, July 1, 2017 3:26 PM GMT

Saturday, Jul. 1, 2017 3:26 PM GMT

Both Tampa Bay and Baltimore have failed to take advantage of the Yankees and Red Sox playing .500 baseball of late by doing the same themselves. Who take a step forward on Saturday?

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays

The Rays won Game 1 of the series in extra innings and will try and make two straight. The Orioles are the favorite according to the MLB odds, but do they make it work in their favor?

 

Pitching Matchup - Odorizzi vs. Bundy

Jake Odorizzi (4-3, 4.00 ERA) was not sharp in his last outing, losing to Baltimore at home, but we later learned he was coming off dealing with food poisoning and probably should have taken an extra day's rest. Nevertheless, that was only partly why his ERA has been steadily climbing since May 11, when it sat at 2.61. Only twice since May 22nd has the right-hander failed to walk less than three batters (seven starts) and in his 14 total starts, he has been taken yard 17 times. Odorizzi is 3-4 with a 5.52 ERA against the Birds when the listed starting pitcher.

With Dylan Bundy (8-6, 3.73) laboring at the end of June, manager Buck Showalter has give his 24-year right-hander seven days between start, also looking to manage his innings. Bundy has had location issues, walking 10 batters in his past three outings and given up four home runs in 16 1/3 innings. The Orioles are hoping the extra rest makes him physically and mentally stronger and he will do a good job like he has most of the year in holding RH hitters to .233 average. Bundy is 1-1 with a bloated 6.20 ERA vs. the Rays.

 Who Goes Deep Could Decide Winner

Both offenses have been a little phlegmatic in their last few outings, which can occur when your run production is largely based on hitting the ball over the fence. Tampa Bay is 3rd in the AL and Baltimore is 5th. The Rays in one sense are more selective at the plate when they have three balls, walking nearly 100 times more than the Orioles. Both teams fan a lot of the time, with Tampa Bay first in whiffs in the junior circuit and the O's 4th.

If you are looking for difference-makers in the game at the dish, I have my eyes on Corey Dickerson and Steve Souza Jr. for Tampa and John Schoop and Trey Mancini for the Birds.

 

Betting Odds, Head to Head and Bullpen Numbers

The overnight line had Baltimore as a -120 favorite with a total of 11. Baltimore holds a 14-9 edge over Tampa Bay and the UNDER is 11-10-2 the past three seasons. Both bullpens have a below average ERA in the league, however, if you are making MLB picks, you need to know the Orioles have six fewer blown saves than the Rays.

 

The Winner Is...

By all appearances, the money line seems like a very close call. With this my attention is drawn to the total where 11 seems to be a high figure. Tampa Bay does have strong Over tendencies as an underdog at 20-11, but last night's Over was a fluke with four runs tallied in the 10th inning and I note Baltimore is 14-5 UNDER at home after six or more straight division battles.

Free MLB Play: Under 8.5Best Betting Line: at 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3139720, "sportsbooksIds":[19,1096,123,1275,169], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

comment here