Bite The Bullet & Grab The Under Despite Low Totals In Mets vs. Giants Matchup

Jason Lake

Friday, August 19, 2016 2:30 PM UTC

Friday, Aug. 19, 2016 2:30 PM UTC

The MLB odds are super-tight for Friday's matchup between the New York Mets and the San Francisco Giants. Maybe there's some betting value on the total instead.

N.Y. Mets vs San Francisco Giants
Well, sugar. We said last week that this would be a good time to start fading the San Francisco Giants, and sure enough, they're 2-4 over their last six games. But that streak started with a 6-2 win over the Baltimore Orioles (+155 away), where Madison Bumgarner bent, folded, spindled and mutilated our MLB pick with seven shutout innings. These things happen.

Bumgarner was the starter in Thursday night's win over the New York Mets (+154 away), too, although he gave up four runs in five innings – Bumgarner also hit a two-run homer, so we'll cut him some slack. Can anyone else win a game for the Giants? More specifically, can Johnny Cueto get the job done Friday (10:15 p.m. ET) against Steven Matz and the Mets? San Francisco is –140 on our MLB odds board as we go to press.


They're All Wasted 
Darned if I can see the betting value in that line. The Mets (60-61, –16.76 units) haven't been doing handicappers any favors this year, and the Giants (67-54, –0.63 units) are just 6-10 in August. It's a shame. Cueto (3.00 FIP) still has San Francisco up 8.82 units this year on a team record of 18-6, but the Giants have lost four of his last six starts. Matz (3.39 FIP) is having a fantastic year, but New York is 2-6 in his last eight trips to the mound, falling to 11-11 on the season at minus-3.87 units.

Checking in with the fine folks at FiveThirtyEight, we see they've got Cueto and the Giants winning Friday's game 58 percent of the time. That's –138 according to our SBR Betting Odds Converter. Not much value there. Even our consensus reports show bettors pretty much split over which team to pick. So how about we look at that total instead? The UNDER is 13-11 for Cueto this year and 13-9 for Matz, but seven runs is the lowest total on the board for Friday. Hmmm.


Fantasy Corner
Then you have to consider how little the Giants have seen of Matz. He scattered seven hits in six scoreless innings against San Fran (+133 away) back in April, winning 13-1. Cueto's much more familiar to Mets batters; they have a combined lifetime .674 OPS against him. But hey, OF Curtis Granderson (.735 OPS) is 3-for-12 with four walks and a pair of homers. He's only owned in 45.1 percent of ESPN leagues. You could do worse.

All right, we're going to bite the bullet here at the home office and take the UNDER, despite that low, low total on the board. No need to make a large bet in this situation. Let's just hope that wonderful West Coast air keeps the ball in the yard Friday night.


Free MLB Pick: UNDER 7 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage
Record: 20-20 ML, 7-4-1 Totals (+4.11 units)

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2993136, "sportsbooksIds":[238,169,93,92,19], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

comment here