Big Value on Red Sox Moneyline Over Pirates MLB Picks

Ross Benjamin

Wednesday, September 17, 2014 1:59 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 17, 2014 1:59 PM UTC

Our MLB betting odds guru examines tonight’s game between the Red Sox/Pirates in his relentless pursuit of wagering value. Read this revealing sports handicapping article that culminates with a rather surprising money line MLB free pick.

Late Season Inter-league Battle
The Pirates will host the Red Sox tonight at PNC Park in Pittsburgh with the first pitch slated for 7:05 PM ET. According to MLB odds, the Pirates are a -165 money line home favorite, and the posted total is 7.0. 


The Starting Pitchers
The Red Sox Clay Buchholz enters tonight in excellent form over his last 4-starts. In those outings, he’s gone 4-0 against the money, posted a stellar 2.10 ERA, and an excellent 0.80 WHIP. Tonight will mark his first ever career start versus the Pirates. Buchholz has gone an outstanding 18-4 against the money during the past 2-seasons after allowing 2 earned runs or less in his previous start.

The Pirates will counter with southpaw Francisco Liriano on the mound. Liriano has seen each of his last 4-starts go under the total, and he’s been a key contributor to those low scoring affairs. In those 4-outings he’s compiled a microscopic 0.67 ERA. Liriano has seen just 7 of his 26-starts (26.9%) this season go over the total.


Chance to Be a Spoiler
The 2013 World Series champions have long been removed from playoff contention. However, they’ll have an opportunity in this series to put a dent in the Pirates postseason chances. Boston entered this 3-game set having won 3 of their last 4. They’ve actually been better on the road this season (35-40) than at home (31-44). When considering your MLB picks note that the Red Sox have gone an extremely profitable 18-9 (+11.3 units) over the past 2-season when the posted total is 7.0 or less.


Pirates Playoff Chances Hanging in the Balance
The Pirates entered this series with a slim 1.5 game lead over the Brewers for the final wild card berth in the National League. As a matter of fact, following this series with the Red Sox, they will host the Brewers in what’s shaping up to be a critical series for both teams. Before that occurs, it’s imperative the Pirates take care of business versus a Red Sox team that’s last in the American League East, and has a less than impressive record of 66-84 (.440). They will be looking to continue on a stellar recent run that’s seen them go 8-2 over their last 10-games. The Pirates have been excellent at home this season going 46-29 (.613).


Final Analysis
If you want to give me a sizable money line underdog, that has a starting pitcher that’s displayed the terrific recent form like Clay Buchholz is in, most times than not, at the very least, I’m going to give it serious consideration. I know that Francisco Liriano is also pitching superb in recent starts, but he’s gone just 6-8 against the money at home in 2014, and has a lofty 4.58 ERA in those outings. The old adage, “no guts then no glory”, applies in this specific scenario.

MLB Pick: Red Sox +162 over the Pirates at 5Dimes

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