Big ERA's Signal Safest Play on Orioles Run-Line Over Phillies, & 'Over' if Baltimore Bats Break Loose

Darin Zank

Tuesday, June 16, 2015 3:12 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jun. 16, 2015 3:12 PM UTC

The Orioles and Phillies are headed in different directions headed into the second game of their four-game series at Camden Yards Tuesday night. For this handicapper the pick on the side is simple; it's the price that must be dealt with.

Phillies-Orioles Tuesday Betting Odds
Many books opened their betting on this game with Baltimore favored by over -200, but that didn't stop bettors from pushing that price another couple of dimes. As of mid-Tuesday morning the best line we could find on the O's and Chris Tillman was the -219 offered at Pinnacle, while Philly and Jerome Williams could be found getting +210 at 5Dimes. Bettors willing to take a chance backing the home team on the run line could get a price of +101, also at Pinnacle.


The Situation
Baltimore grabbed Game 1 of this four-game, two-city series Monday night 4-0 behind eight shutout innings from Wei-Yin Chen and a three-run homer from the recently returned Matt Wieters.

The Orioles are 3-0 in their last three series, and 9-2 in their last 11 games.

At 32-31 Baltimore trails first-place Tampa by three games in the AL East.

On the other end of the spectrum Philly is 0-3 in its last three series, owns a seven-game losing streak and is just 3-17 over its last 20 games. The Phillies have been shut out three of their last four games, and haven't hit a home run since June 7.We just feel sorry for Ryne Sandberg, who was handed the wheel of a sinking ship.

At 22-43 Philly owns the worst record in baseball, and the worst road record at a ridiculous 7-27.

These two teams last met back in 2012.

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Tuesday's Starters
Tillman (4-7, 5.68) is just 4/12 on quality starts this year, but two for his last four. Three weeks ago he fashioned a quality outing against Houston; then he gave up six runs in less than five innings against Tampa; then he came up with a quality start against Cleveland; but last time out he gave up four runs in less than six innings against Boston. On the season Tillman has allowed 70 hits through 65 innings, with 33 walks; Baltimore is 5-7 in Tillman's starts, with the totals leaning OVER 7-5.

This will be Tillman's first-ever start against Philadelphia, which could give him an advantage for at least the first few times through the lineup.

Williams (3-6, 5.71) is just 2/13 on quality starts this season. Last time out he gave up four runs in six innings against Cincinnati, and over his last three starts he's allowed 12 runs through 15 1/3 innings. On the season Williams has given up 96 hits, including 13 dingers, through 69 1/3 innings; Philly is 4-9 in Williams' starts, with the totals leaning OVER 7-5.

This will be Williams' first start against Baltimore since 2013, when he was with the Angels.


Tuesday's Batting Splits
Philadelphia ranks dead last in the Majors this season against right-handed pitching with a pathetic .277 team OBP.

Baltimore ranks 17th against righties with a .313 OBP.


Phillies-O's Betting Trends
Baltimore owns one of the larger home-road splits in MLB this season, going 21-13 at home but 11-18 on the road.

Philly has played five UNDERS in a row, mainly because the offense has fallen asleep.

Browse the futures odds trading for the MLB World Series

Phillies-O's Tuesday Free Picks
This MLB pick is simply a matter of a hot team against a cold team, but our play is affected by the line; we're not big on risking that kind of price on guys with ERAs over five. Instead, we'll take a chance that the Oriole bats come up with a big night, and go with the O's on the run line. Also, if Baltimore's bats do break loose, this game should play OVER.

MLB Picks: Orioles +101 on the run line at Pinnacle and OVER 8.5 runs (-110) at 5Dimes

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