Bettors Take Note: Dodgers on the Road Cash RL Tickets at 80% Rate

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, July 21, 2015 1:03 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jul. 21, 2015 1:03 PM UTC

With the help of better pitching, we use the most resilient team in baseball to place our MLB pick on the run line for maximum profit. Find out who we favor in tonight's Dodgers vs. Braves.


LA Dodgers (Anderson) vs. Atlanta Braves (Wood) 7:10 ET
The LA Dodgers and Atlanta Braves play the 2nd of their early week set beginning at 7:10 ET tonight.  Atlanta won the opener on Monday night (7-5).  That sets up a situation for the most resilient team in baseball, the LA Dodgers, and allows us to use them in a Run Line underdog situation, backed by this year’s numbers that are 16-4 (80%) and 17-2 (89%).  

A quick review of our 2015 OPS BUY and SELL ratings at the All Star Break finds Atlanta on the top of our “SELL” list of National League teams.  Atlanta is bottom 6 in both OPS pitching (.744) and hitting (.681).  In short, they are over performing with a 44-49 record. This team will continue the downward spiral they are on with a recent 9-14 record.  The Braves have won only 7 of 18 Wood starts.  His 3.76 ERA for the year would imply he would be competitive in this spot.  A closer look inside the numbers, tells a different story!  In 6 home starts, the Braves are 2-4 behind Wood, who has a 5.18 ERA and a clearly bloated 1.70 home WHIP.  Those are definitely play AGAINST numbers.  In his previous outing, Wood was ripped for 7 runs and 10 hits in 5 2/3 IP of an 11-3 loss to Colorado.  Atlanta and Wood remain a play AGAINST on this field. 

A quick look at the OPS numbers entering Monday night shows the LA Dodgers with the best combined numbers in MLB.  They have the number 4 batting OPS at .756 and the number 5 pitching OPS at .659.  Granted, that the Dodgers’ pitching numbers are greatly impacted by the outstanding numbers of Kershaw and Greinke.  But, Anderson has been far from an empty golf bag.  A 3.08 ERA for the year points out his excellence.  But in the last 6 starts, Anderson is even better with a 3-1 record and 2.48 ERA.  In his last 6 road starts, Anderson is 3-2 with a 2.06 ERA.  In 7 innings of work vs. Atlanta this season, Anderson allowed just 2 runs in a 6-3 victory.  The Dodgers’ loss last night sets them up in an extraordinarily strong situation.  In the last 2 seasons, LAD is 77-35 following a loss, including 28-12 this season following a defeat.  

Run line players take note, 39 of 53 LAD victories have been by 2 or more runs.  More impressively is that 16 of 20 (80%) of their road wins have been by 2 or more runs.  For Atlanta, 17 of their 19 home losses (89%) have been by 2 or more runs.  

With the above run line numbers, it is imperative that we turn the most resilient team in baseball into a run line dog as a Top of the Ticket play for Tuesday action.

MLB Pick: LA Dodgers (Anderson) on the Run Line at Pinnacle

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