Betting Value in Reds vs. Cardinals MLB Tonight

Darin Zank

Tuesday, August 19, 2014 3:26 PM UTC

Tuesday, Aug. 19, 2014 3:26 PM UTC

St. Louis took Game 1 of this series Monday night 6-5 in 10 innings, shooting down our free MLB pick on underdog Cincinnati. We and the Reds go looking for better fortunes when the teams meet for the middle game of this series Tuesday night (8:15 pm ET).

Tuesday's Betting Odds
As of early Tuesday morning the best price we could find on St. Louis and John Lackey was the -167 offered at BetOnline, while Cincy and Alfredo Simon could be found at +163 at 5Dimes. And most books were listing the total on Tuesday's game at 7.5 runs.

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Monday Re-Hash
In yesterday's game, St. Louis took an early 2-0 lead with help from Cincy RF Jay Bruce, who misplayed what should have been the third out in the first inning, and added another run in the third to take a 3-0 lead. Cincy then put up a four spot in the top of the fifth, punctuated with a three-run bomb from Bruce, to take the lead. The Cardinals tied it with a run in the seventh, and re-gained the lead with a run in the eighth. The Reds then tied the game in the top of the ninth with a run off St. Louis closer Trevor Rosenthal, who's now allowed four runs over his last three outings.

The Cardinals then won it on Jhonny Peralta's RBI single in the bottom of the tenth.

St. Louis, to our dismay, won as a -130 favorite on Monday's MLB betting odds, and the game played 'over' its total of eight runs.

Cincinnati IF Brandon Phillips played for the first time in over a month Monday, coming back from a stint on the DL with a bad thumb, only to go 0-for-4.

St. Louis starter Justin Masterson gave up four runs in five innings Monday, and has now allowed 14 runs in 20 innings since coming over in that trade with Cleveland.

St. Louis now leads this season series seven games to three.


Tuesday's Twirlers
Lackey (12-8, 3.91) is 16/24 on quality starts this season, and 2/3 since joining St. Louis two weeks ago. Most recently he held San Diego to two runs through seven innings, which was a good bounce-back effort after getting pegged for nine runs in five innings by Baltimore just before that.

For the season Lackey has allowed 162 hits in 156 innings, walked 37 and struck out 128. St. Louis is 2-1 in Lackey's starts, with the totals going 1-2.

This will be Lackey's first start against Cincinnati since 2007, when he was with the Angels.

Simon (12-8, 3.28) is 14/24 on quality starts this year, but 0 for his last three. Last time out he got nicked for five ER and 10 hits in five innings against Colorado, and over his last three starts he's given up 12 ER in 15 innings.

On the season Simon has allowed 134 hits in 148 innings, although his K/BB ratio is a mediocre 92/41. Cincy is 15-9 in Simon's starts, with the totals skewing toward the 'unders' by a 15-9 margin.

This will be Simon's first-ever start against St. Louis, although he's made more than a dozen appearances in relief against the Cardinals.


Free MLB Pick for Tuesday
We may have lost with the Reds on Monday, but we think the value on Tuesday's betting line remains with Cincy. So we'll take the Reds for our free MLB pick on Game 2.

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