Betting Value Found in Today's Starting Pitching Matchups

Ross Benjamin

Sunday, September 21, 2014 1:14 PM UTC

Sunday, Sep. 21, 2014 1:14 PM UTC

Our resident professional MLB handicapping expert Ross Benjamin examines a pair of starting pitching matchups on Sunday afternoon. Read his article to see where his betting advantages are in the games between the Brewers/Pirates and Tigers/Royals.

Brewers vs. Pirates 1:35 PM ET
The Brewers starter Wily Peralta has seen each of his last 3-starts go under the total, and posted a stellar 2.75 ERA in those outings. In 3 starts versus the Pirates in 2014 he’s posted a 4.26 ERA.

The Pirates starter Vance Worley enters today’s start having gone 3-0 in his last 3 against the money while compiling a very good 3.37 ERA. He’s gone 1-3 against the money in his career versus the Brewers, with a lofty 5.48 ERA, and terrible 1.87 WHIP. All 4 of those starts have come since 2011.

Advantage: I’m not crazy about either of these starting pitchers in terms of a betting edge for my free picks. Based on Wiley Peralta being in good form recently, and Worley’s struggles in his career versus the Brewers, I’m going to give the slightest of betting edges the Brewers hurler. It’s an extremely slight lean to Wily Peralta of the Brewers over Vance Worley of the Pirates.

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Tigers vs. Royals 2:10 PM ET
The Tigers Rick Porcello has struggled in recent starts. The right-hander has gone 0-4 against the money in his last 4 with a lofty 1.60 WHIP. He’s been very good versus the Royals in 2014, going 3-1 against the money, and with a stellar 2.49 ERA.

The Royals will counter with veteran Jeremy Guthrie on the hill. He’s displayed respectable form over his last 3-starts by posting a 3.57 ERA. He’s also been profitable in his 2014 home starts going 10-5 against the money. However, he’s had immense problems when facing the Tigers over the past 2-seasons. Guthrie has faced theTigers 3-times this season, posted a large 8.63 ERA, and a horrible 2.03 WHIP.

Advantage: Based on how well Porcello has pitched versus the Royals in 2014, and contrarily how terrible Guthrie has been versus the Tigers, it becomes a huge factor pertaining to this matchup. My betting edge goes to Rick Porcello of the Tigers over Jeremy Guthrie of the Royals for Sunday's MLB picks. Remember to always place your bets at a trustworthy sportsbook like 5Dimes.

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