Betting Value Found With Gausman & Orioles +130 Against Mariners

Charles Stark

Wednesday, August 12, 2015 12:44 AM GMT

Wednesday, Aug. 12, 2015 12:44 AM GMT

Today, I'm going to back the Baltimore Orioles, a team with something to play for, on the plus money line against the Seattle Mariners, a team with nothing to lose. This is good underdog value on the better team with a decent pitching matchup.

Odds
Oddsmakers came out making Baltimore a pretty strong underdog in this spot, which makes some sense considering the pitchers. The line has dropped a little bit and the best MLB odds right now on Baltimore are at Pinnacle at +117. Any type of plus money is good value to me on a game in which the Orioles could easily win.

 

Pitching Matchup
Kevin Gausman takes the mound for the Orioles with a 4.56 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 44 strikeouts. He has only had a few starts this year but the guy has the kind of stuff that can shut teams down. For me this is all about the matchup, and although Gausman has gotten knocked around on occasion this season I like for him to come in to Seattle and pitch a strong game at Safeco Field. In his last four starts he has allowed 12 total earned runs, but in two combined starts against the Braves and the Tigers he allowed just two earned over 14 innings. On the road he has got lit up with an ERA over 7.00, but again this is a guy who has really good stuff and is facing a pretty weak hitting team in the Mariners. Another good lean in his favor is that he is coming off a really tough outing against the Angels in Los Angeles, in which he allowed six earned runs in just five innings, so for me that just means he's due for a good bounce back start.

Hisashi Iwakuma gets the start for Seattle and comes in with a 4.41 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 51 strikeouts, and a 3-2 record. Honestly, he is one of my favorite pictchers in the major leagues because I've seen him pitch so much in Japan and it is not easy to go against him. At home he has struggled a little bit with an ERA over 5.00 this season, so again, this is good value to take the Orioles. In his last two home starts he has allowed nine earned runs in 12 innings of work, but he was pretty sharp in his last outing against the Rangers.

Charles also recommends betting Pirates-Cardinals today.

Offenses
The Orioles are ranked eighth in the major leagues in runs scored per game at 4.39, eighth in OPS at .732, and 11th in batting average hitting .255 as a team. The issue for them is being productive on the road comparatively to their numbers at home. They simply have not been nearly as productive in away games and their major offensive statistics go down when they travel. Still, they are good hitting team overall to take in this plus money line situation.

Seattle ranks 27th in runs scored per game at 3.73, 21st in OPS at .698, and 27th in batting average at .241. At home their OPS and batting average both go up, but interestingly enough their runs per game go down. I've been surprised by their lack of offense considering some of the talent they have on their team. With Gausman taking the mound for the Orioles, the Mariners could have a good day at the plate, but then again they also could struggle. That is the rub, you just don't know what type a team is going to show up at the plate so for me I will go ahead and take the plus money value.

Not the most interesting game on the board today but it is a decent pitching matchup. Again, this is the time of the year when we get a lot of games with one team with a shot at the playoffs versus a team that is out of it. I like taking those teams that are out of it as an underdog but today the value is with the Orioles to upset Seattle, with good plus money on the better team.

MLB Pick: Orioles +130 at The Greek

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