Betting Value Found in 2 of Monday's Starting Pitching Matchups

Ross Benjamin

Monday, September 22, 2014 1:18 PM UTC

Monday, Sep. 22, 2014 1:18 PM UTC

Our MLB betting odds expert Ross Benjamin examines a pair of starting pitching matchups for tonight. Read this article to find out where the best betting values are in the games between the Royals/Indians and Giants/Dodgers.

Royals vs. Indians 7:05 PM ET
The Royals will send southpaw Daniel Duffy to the mound tonight. Duffy has gone a very profitable 6-1 in his last 7-starts against the money line with a stellar 2.08 ERA. The Royals hurler has an outstanding 1.88 ERA in 16-starts at night, and a very good 2.39 ERA in 12-starts on the road during the 2014 season.

The Indians counter with a red-hot pitcher of their own in Carlos Carrasco. He’s seen 7 of his last 8-starts stay under the total while posting an excellent 1.29 ERA and compiling just shy of an 8:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Carrasco allowed 1 earned run or less in 7 of those past 8-starts.

Advantage: The Royals have a lot riding on tonight’s game, and the Indians are still in contention for an American League wild card berth. Both of these starting pitchers are red-hot entering tonight. I like this one to be an old fashioned pitcher’s duel, and have a lean toward making a wager on this game going under the total for my MLB picks.

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Giants vs. Dodgers 10:10 PM ET
Jake Peavy is rewarding the Giants for pulling the trigger on a trade earlier this season, bringing the veteran right-hander over from the Red Sox. Peavy was shaky for the majority of the first 4-months this season, but boy, has he turned the corner dramatically in recent starts. He’s gone 4-0 in his last 4 against the money, with a microscopic 0.69 ERA, and 6-1 during the last 7 with a 1.15 ERA.

Dan Haren has been dominating in his last 3-starts at Dodger Stadium. He’s gone 3-0 against the money in those outings, posting a shining 0.90 ERA, and compiling a better than 8:1 strikeout to walk ratio.

Advantage: I just keep thinking how well Jake Peavy pitched at crunch time for the Red Sox last season on their path to winning the World Series. The way he’s come on over the last month, has been eerily similar to what we saw from Peavy in 2013. I just don’t trust Dan Haren enough to give him the call in this one. Regardless of how well he’s pitched in recent home starts, Haren has a track history of being inconsistent in recent seasons. My betting edge tonight goes to Jake Peavy of the Giants over Dan Haren of the Dodgers.

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