Betting Trends Favor the 'Over': Padres vs. Giants MLB Picks

Mark Lathrop

Monday, May 4, 2015 12:29 PM UTC

Monday, May. 4, 2015 12:29 PM UTC

Our handicapper finds betting trends that contradict the MLB odds in tonight's San Diego Padres game versus the San Francisco Giants. Read on to find which way these trends lean as you make your Monday MLB Picks.

Recent Sweeps, Pitchers & Betting Odds
The San Diego Padres visit the San Francisco Giants on Monday night with both teams coming off of three game winning sweeps over the weekend. Both teams are trying to keep pace with the Dodgers in the NL West, winner of four straight games themselves.

On the mound for the Giants is their ace, Madison Bumgarner, who is coming off an excellent outing versus the NL West leading Dodgers where he pitched 8 innings of one-run ball while striking out nine. Going for San Diego is Tyson Ross, who last time out ran into the newly unbeatable Houston Astros on April 28th, giving up four runs in five innings but still striking out nine.

The early line has the home Giants favored with the money line currently sitting at -139 at Pinnacle, with the MLB Odds O/U total at a reasonable 6.5 runs. Kind of chilly in San Francisco after the heat wave last week with a game time temp of 52F is expected.

Early this season, Bumgarner has been bringing the heat, with an uptick in velocity carried over from last year. It’s definitely working for him and it shows from his sparkling 26/5 K/BB ratio. However, last time out this season against the Padres, he was lit up for ten hits and five runs in just three innings of work.  The two Padres that give Bumgarner the most trouble were active in that game, Justin Upton and Bruce Norris. Justin Upton is a particular thorn in Bumgarner’s side, going 11-27 against him in his career with enough walks to push his OBP to .500.

Tyson Ross is coming off of two straight losses although his strikeout rate is still above average. Ross has struck out more than one batter per inning, continuing the trend he started in 2014 where he posted a K/9 ratio of 8.97. Ross features only two pitchers, a plus fastball 60% of the time and a slider for the remaining 40%. Although Ross throws his fastball in the mid-90’s so things could be worse for the right hander. This season’s leading Giants hitters all handle Ross fairly well with averages against him well over .300 (Aoki, Posey, Pagan, Belt).

The Padres offense have been in some high scoring games so far this early season. 20 of the Padres’ 26 games this year have had totals of seven runs or more. For the home team just thirteen of the first 25 games for the Giants have totaled more than 7 runs, although that is still slightly over .500.

Padres vs. Giants  MLB Picks: Series Preview & Odds Analysis

MLB Betting Verdict
With the last time these two teams meeting producing 12 runs, I like the prospect of having to only clear 6.5 runs to cover an over bet. Bumgarner got rocked in that game which is rare – or is it? Bumgarner is a notorious slow starter, his April numbers have been historically average and he gains dominance over the course of a season. He also only faced San Diego once last year and also gave up five runs, four earned. Interestingly enough, Bumgarner was fairly pedestrian at home last year while compiling a 4.03 ERA and 7-6 record. I expect the Padres to have Bumgarner’s number again on Monday night. With Ross, what sticks out to me is his 1.88/3.79 Home/Away split. Ross is a beast at PETCO Park, but gives up almost two more runs per game away from home. All of these factors combined have me taking over 6.5 Runs as my Monday MLB Pick.

MLB Picks: Over 6.5 at Pinnacle

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