Betting System & Pitchers' ERA Analysis Suggest Taking Cardinals -1.5 Over Braves

Ross Benjamin

Saturday, July 25, 2015 12:03 PM UTC

Saturday, Jul. 25, 2015 12:03 PM UTC

Our resident MLB handicapping professional is coming off a 4-0 sweep on Friday, and is now 7-1 the last two days. He’s providing us with a revealing betting preview article on Saturday’s game between Atlanta and St. Louis which concludes with his run-line pick.

Braves and Cardinals at Busch on Saturday
The Braves and Cardinals will play the second of a three game series today at Busch Stadium in St. Louis. The first pitch is slated for 7:15 PM ET. The Cardinals took the opening game of the series on Friday with a 4-2 win. These teams have now gone 10-4 under the total in their fourteen encounters since 2013.


Starting Pitchers
Former Cardinal Shelby Miller gets the start for Atlanta today. If Miller sued his teammates for a lack of support in recent starts, he could certainly make a very compelling case. In his last six starts, the Braves have scored a grand total of 8 runs, and proceeded to go 0-6 in those games. Adding insult to injury is the fact that Miller has displayed shaky form during his previous four starts, compiling a sizable 1.79 WHIP in those outings.

St. Louis will go with unheralded Carlos Martinez on the mound. I say unheralded because he’s flown under the radar a bit with all things being considered, and lacks the notoriety that many of the other top National League starting pitchers have received. Martinez has gone an outstanding 9-1 in his last ten team starts with a spectacular 1.20 ERA during that time. Today will be his first career start versus Atlanta.


Braves Road Woes
As a result of last night’s loss, Atlanta has now dropped six in a row on the road, and they’re a poor 19-30 (.380) in away games this season. The Braves have also gone 3-9 in their last twelve games overall. Much of their recent lack of success can be attributed to anemic offensive production. Atlanta has scored 3 runs or less in 20 of their previous 30 games.


Home Field Domination
St. Louis has been spectacular at home this season going 35-12 (.745). The Cardinals also enter tonight on a modest four game win streak, and are 6-1 in their last seven overall. According to the MLB odds at, St. Louis is a -205 money line favorite on Saturday. The Cardinals are 18-3 this season as a money line home favorite of -150 or more, and have also gone a superb 49-17 (.742) overall in 2015 as a money line favorite of -110 or more. They’ll be facing a right-handed starting pitcher (Miller) today and that’s significant. St. Louis is 50-21 (.704) this season in that exact role.


MLB Super Betting Angle
The Cardinals Carlos Martinez has posted a 2.51 ERA in seventeen starts this year. Shelby Miller of Atlanta has a 2.33 ERA in nineteen starts this season. The combination of the two starting pitcher’s ERA qualifies for a terrific betting system that’s more than aced the test of time.

Any National League money line favorite of -175 to -200 (Cardinals) that has a starting pitcher (Martinez) with an ERA of 2.70 or less, and is facing a National League starting pitcher (Miller) with an ERA of 3.00 or less, resulted in that favorite going 52-8 (86.7%) since 1997. The favorite also had a dominating +2.5 run per game differential, and that will be the convincing factor when making one of my MLB picks for Saturday. Pinnacle provides me the best value in respect to a run-line wager.

MLB Picks: St. Louis -1.5 (+116) on the run-line at Pinnacle.

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