Betting Stats Make Jays Run Line Odds The MLB Pick Over Royals

Joe Gavazzi

Monday, July 4, 2016 1:00 PM UTC

Monday, Jul. 4, 2016 1:00 PM UTC

The Kansas City Royals and Toronto Blue Jays begin their early week set this July Fourth, so read on and start your week with a winner with our Free MLB Pick on the game as you celebrate!

I favor the Toronto Blue Jays on the run line here, supported by dichotomous pitching numbers, a solid hitting advantage for the home team, and backed by 80% run line support. 

Kansas City continues to underperform their two recent seasons, which concluded with a World Championship at the end of the 2015 season. As they enter play today, the Royals stand 43-38, a full 6 games behind the Cleveland Indians for first place in the AL Central.

Small ball simply has not been as effective this season, as both the batting and pitching numbers have declined. One of the biggest reasons, however, for the Royals’ failure to command the standings must be their play on the road.

KC is just 16-27 away, including 5-13 in their last 18 games, and comes off a 1-2 road trip at Philly. Today’s starter Volquez has been spotty at best, and has a poor history against this opponent. For the year, Volquez is 7-7 with a 4.80 ERA, but .785 OPS on the road. In 6 regular season starts vs the Royals, Volquez is 0-4 with a 6.46 ERA. 

The Toronto Blue Jays enter with great momentum. After Cleveland won the first two games of the recently completed weekend series, the Blue Jays snapped the Indians’ winning streak with a pair of victories Saturday and Sunday. That included wins by a count of 9-6, following the 19 inning marathon on Friday night, then capping off the weekend set with a resounding 17-1 thrashing of Kluber and The Tribe.

With those two wins, Toronto is now 26-16 following their 19-23 beginning. A major home/road batting edge will be a key in this game. Toronto has a .792 home batting OPS, compared to the .690 road batting OPS of the Royals.

And we can’t forget about ALCS revenge, in which the Royals took care of the Blue Jays in 6 games to advance to the World Series. But perhaps Toronto’s greatest edge will come with Sanchez on the mound. For the season, the emerging young starter is 8-1 with a 3.08 ERA. He has not lost since April 22nd. In his most recent three starts spanning 20 IP, he has allowed just 4 earned runs.

We have no problem playing the run line in this game, as 36 of 45 Toronto victories, including 17/21 on this field, have come by two or more runs. I invite you to put the MLB Odds in your favor and join me in my MLB Pick on the Toronto Blue Jays’ run line in today’s game against Kansas City.

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Free MLB Pick:  Blue Jays -1½ +110
Best Line Offered:  at Heritage

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