Betting on Quality At-Bats vs. Subpar Pitchers: Yankees-Red Sox

Charles Stark

Sunday, July 12, 2015 11:33 AM UTC

Sunday, Jul. 12, 2015 11:33 AM UTC

Despite 2015 seeming to be the year of the pitcher, I am still betting over the run total for Yankees vs. Red Sox. Historically there's no lack of runs between these rivals.

Sunday's MLB Odds: Yankees vs. Red Sox
MLB odds makers have come out with a total of 9 for this game and it seems about right to me but I think we're going to see a lot of runs across the plate today. The juice across the board is not that high and at most places right now it is about -105, but the best odds I have seen is at Pinnacle sports where you get the over nine on this game at +105. Anything from a pick to a little bit of plus money is good value for me on two teams second put up a lot of runs in a hurry.


Sunday's Starting Pitchers
For the Yankees Nathan Eovaldi will take the hill with a 4.45 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. Baseball is a really funny sport, and with those high numbers he is still 8-2 on the season. He doesn't go real deep into ballgames but recently he has been decent after getting hammered in Miami allowing eight runs in under an inning. In his last four games he's only allowed six runs in 22 innings. Still he is coming into this game with a 5.17 ERA on the road.

For the Red Sox Wade Miley gets the call with a 4.50 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. Recently he has not been very sharp allowing nine runs in his last 17 innings and at home he has an ERA a bit over 4.00. He is pitch twice against the Yankees so far this season only allowing five earned runs in 12 innings for 3.65 ERA and a WHIP of 1.05. For me though that just means the Yankees have had a good look at him so they should have some nice quality at-bats against him today in Fenway.

Check out Charles' Preview for Diamondbacks vs. Mets, too.

The Yankees ranked second in the league in runs scored per game with Boston ranking 14th. In on base plus slugging percentage the Yankees ranked fifth and Boston ranks 12th. This is what we see between these two teams the Yankees mostly being ranked in the top 10 in the upper part of the league compared to Boston who is more upper middle tiered. The good news for Red Sox fans is that Boston hits a lot better at home than on the road, their runs per game goes from 3.86 on the road to 4.53 at home. And in on base plus slugging percentage there average goes from .681 on the road to .757 at home, which is the eighth best in the major leagues.

Look for both these offenses to have a lot of nice quality at-bats against these two subpar pitchers. When deciding on my MLB pick for this game, I note it has all the makings of another classic slugfest with like an 8-5 type final. Sometimes I like to go the opposite way on games like this but not today as I expect a lot of runs early and often and for this game to go well over the total, back the over with confidence.

MLB Run Total Picks: Over 9

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