Betting Insight Found in Today's Starting Pitching Matchups

Ross Benjamin

Monday, August 25, 2014 12:09 PM GMT

Ross Benjamin breaks down a couple of NL starting pitching matchups tonight in order to determine MLB wagering value. Read his handicapping article on the Cardinals/Pirates and Brewers/Padres.

Cardinals vs. Pirates 7:05 PM ET
The Cardinals starter John Lackey has gone a perfect 3-0 against the money at home since arriving in St. Louis via trade from Boston. In those 3-outings he’s posted a stellar 2.70 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and a 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio. As a matter of fact, he’s allowed 2 earned runs or less in each of his last 2-starts, and when that’s occurred during the past 2-seasons, Lackey has seen 14 of those 16-starts go under the total.

The Pirates starter Francisco Liriano is coming off a rough start in which he allowed 7 earned runs, 10-hits, and walked 3 in 4.0 innings, during an 11-3 loss to Atlanta. That made the Pirates southpaw 0-4 in his last 4 against the money line. However, Liriano has seen 6 of his last 7-starts go under the total while posting a solid 3.21 ERA. He’s also gone a very profitable 6-1 against the money versus the Cardinals since the start of the 2013 season, and compiled a very good 2.30 ERA, and 0.98 WHIP in those 7-starts.

Advantage: This pitching matchup is a bit of a tough call. I see this as a low scoring affair with all things being considered. I’m leaning toward a MLB pick on going under the run total in this game tonight.

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Brewers vs. Padres 10:10 PM ET
The Brewers starter Kyle Lohse has been in shaky form over his last 3-starts, posting a large 8.31 ERA and 2.15 WHIP. He also allowed a whopping 5 home runs in just 13.0 innings of work during those 3-outings. Lohse has been very good at home this season, but has been less than impressive in away starts. In 15-starts on the road in 2014 he’s posted a lofty 4.52 ERA. A silver lining for the veteran Brewers right-hander is the fact that he’s gone 3-0 against the money versus the Padres since 2013, and done so with an excellent 1.42 ERA.

The Padres starter Eric Stults has displayed superb form over his last 4-starts by posting an excellent 1.46 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. The Padres southpaw will be facing a Brewers team tonight that averages drawing just 2.5 walks per game. Stults has gone an extremely profitable 15-4 at home in his career against the money versus opponents that draw 3 or less walks per game.

Advantage: The recent form of both of these starters speaks volumes to me in terms of who gets the betting edge. I know this will sound risky, but I’m very confident in giving the betting edge tonight to Eric Stults of the Padres over Kyle Lohse of the Brewers, and recommend putting this into action at a sportsbook like ChineseBookie.

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