Betting on Indians vs. Rays Game 3: Smoke & Mirrors in Effect

Ross Benjamin

Wednesday, July 1, 2015 1:02 PM GMT

Wednesday, Jul. 1, 2015 1:02 PM GMT

Despite the fact that the Cleveland Indians have taken both game 1 and 2 against the Rays in Tampa Bay, this handicapper is playing TB on the Money Line.

Series Resumes Between Indians and Rays
The Rays and Indians will play the third of a four game series in Tampa on Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET. The Indians have won the first two games of the series in convincing fashion by scores of 6-2 and 7-1. The road team has won 4 of the 5 games played between these clubs this season.

 

Starting Pitchers
The Indians right-hander Carlos Carrasco will be on the mound tonight. Carrasco has posted a lofty 4.81 ERA during his previous four starts. He’s faced the Rays once in 2015, and it was far from a dominating performance. In that outing, he allowed 3 earned runs on 10 hits in 6 2/3 innings of work.

The Rays will send right-hander Alex Colome to the hill today. Colome has been a bit of a tough luck pitcher of late. He’s gone 0-5 in his previous five starts despite posting a respectable 3.76 ERA during those outings. He’s made two career starts versus the Indians, with one coming this year, and the other in 2014. He was superb in those starts, allowing no earned runs on 5 hits while walking 3 in 13 1/3 innings pitched.

 

Disappointing Tribe
The two wins to open this series improved the Indians to 35-41 on the season. Many baseball betting experts considered Cleveland to contend in the AL Central prior to the start of the season, or at the very least for an AL wild card spot. One or both of those scenarios may eventually transpire, but early returns indicate that possibility as unlikely, and quite frankly it appears those projections were vastly inaccurate. On a positive note, the Indians have been better on the road (20-18) than at home (15-23). They’ve also gone 24-22 versus right-handed starting pitchers like they’ll face tonight, and are a poor 11-19 against southpaws.

 

Overachieving Rays
As opposed to today’s opponent (Indians), the Rays were projected to be at the bottom of the AL East standings, and a long shot at best to be in the AL wild card hunt. Needless to say they’ve surprised many with their 42-37 start. The skeptics will tell you that they will eventually fade down the stretch, and I tend to agree with their assessment. Tampa has hung in there do to some stellar pitching, and just like many had predicted before the start of the 2015 campaign, their offensive production is a huge area of concern. The Rays average just 3.6 runs per game and are hitting a less than impressive .245 as a team. Similar to the Indians, Tampa Bay has gone just 20-23 at home, and they’re a stellar 22-13 on the road.

 

Final Analysis
This is an extremely tough call. One team (Indians) has underachieved thus far and the other (Rays) has exceeded expectations. The laws of probability say, the team with the winning record which has lost the first two games of the series is likely to bounce back with a win today, versus their opponent with a losing mark. In addition, the Rays starter Colome seems to have the Indians number. I’ll have a small lean toward the home team in this game for one of my MLB picks on Wednesday. I’m going to be using 5Dimes to make this wager based on their current money line price.

MLB Picks: Play on Tampa Bay on the Money Line 

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