Betting Edge for Fiers & Brewers vs. Giants in MLB Odds

Darin Zank

Saturday, August 30, 2014 2:44 PM UTC

Saturday, Aug. 30, 2014 2:44 PM UTC

Milwaukee continued its recent scuffling, losing the opener of this series in San Francisco Friday night 13-2. Can the Brewers bounce back for Game 2 Saturday night (9:05 pm ET)? And which way will we go with our free MLB pick?

Saturday's Betting Odds
As of Saturday AM the best price we could find on MLB Odds for San Francisco with Jake Peavy was the -104 offered at Heritage, while Milwaukee and Mike Fiers could also be found at -104 at 5Dimes. And most books were listing the total on Saturday's game at seven runs.

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Game Set-Up
Milwaukee dropped two of three games in San Diego earlier this week, then lost the opener of this series Friday night. The Brewers have lost their last two series and six of their last eight games. But at 73-61 they remain in the lead in the NL Central, a game and a half ahead of second-place St. Louis.

San Francisco, meanwhile, took three of four games at home from Colorado earlier this week, then rapped out 19 hits in winning Game 1 of this series Friday night. The Giants have won three of their last four series, and nine of their last 13 games. At 72-62 Frisco sits in second place in the NL West, 3.5 games behind the division-leading Dodgers. But the Giants also lead the NL wild-card race by a half-game over the Cardinals, and by a game and a half over Atlanta.

These two teams have split four games so far this season.


Saturday's Starters
Jake Peavy (3-13, 4.34) is 13/26 on quality starts this season, 3/6 since joining the Giants in that trade with Boston a month ago. Last time out he held Colorado to one ER through seven innings, and over his last three starts he's allowed just four ER through 21 innings.

For the season Peavy has allowed 170 hits, including 22 homers, in 164 innings. San Francisco is 2-4 in his starts, with the totals going 2-3.

Peavy has started twice earlier this year against Milwaukee, once for Boston and once for Frisco, giving up five runs and 15 hits through 11 2/3 innings; his teams lost both those games, and both games played 'under.'

Fiers (4-1, 1.54) has provided a very nice boost to the Brewers rotation since getting called up back in June. He's 4/4 on quality starts, most recently holding Pittsburgh to two runs through seven innings. Over his last four starts he's given up just four runs and ten hits through 28 innings.

On the season Fiers, a 22nd-round pick in the 2009 draft, has allowed just 16 hits through 35 innings, walked just seven and struck out 37. Milwaukee is a perfect 4-0 in games Fiers has started, with the totals going 1-3.

Fiers earned another shot at a spot in the Milwaukee rotation by going 8-5 with a 2.55 ERA at Triple-A Nashville this summer, with a 129/17 K/BB ratio.

This will be Fiers' first-ever start against the Giants.


Betting Trends
San Francisco has played four 'unders' in its last five games, mainly because Giants pitching has allowed just eight runs total over that span.

The totals have leaned 'under' 34-32 in games played at AT&T Park this season.


Free MLB Pick for Saturday
Fiers has almost been a savior for the Brewers, filling in for the injured Matt Garza and winning four games. He also owns an advantage Saturday, at least for the first couple of times through the order, in that the San Francisco lineup has never faced him. So we'll go with Milwaukee for our free MLB pick on Saturday's game.

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