Betting Baseball: White Sox Surprise Yankees in Series Opener at Home

Doug Upstone

Monday, June 26, 2017 3:49 PM UTC

Monday, Jun. 26, 2017 3:49 PM UTC

It has been a rough dozen games for the New York Yankees, losers of 10 of 12. It has not been a whole lot better for the Chicago White Sox, with a 1-6 mark and being swept at home by Oakland over the weekend.

Off a 3-1 weekend here, moved my recent record against the MLB odds to 22-13,  let's see if we can start another week with a winner.


Pitching Matchup: Montgomery vs. Holmberg

Jordan Montgomery (5-4, 3.74 ERA) has pitched about as well as could be expected in wearing the Pinstripes for the first time and pressure that goes with doing so. The 24-year-old lefty has really found a rhythm in June, with a 3-0 record and 2.96 ERA in four starts. He has averaged nearly a strikeout an inning and only given up a .237 batting average. He beat Chicago back in April, permitting three runs in six innings.

David Holmberg (1-1, 2.84) has been quietly efficient as both a starter and reliever for the White Sox. Not sure what Chicago's long-term plans are for the 25-year-old left-hander, as he has not been stretched out beyond 77 pitches. Look for New York to use as many right-handed batters as possible since those from the other side of the plate are hitting .148 with a .179 OBP against Holmberg.


Both Offenses Are In The Dumps

While having starting pitching problems has really hurt the Yankees, the offense has not picked them up at all. In New York's past eight outings they have averaged only 3.7 runs a contest, compared to 5.6 RPG on the season. Other than Aaron Judge, everyone else in Joe Girardi's lineup card has cooled and Aaron Hicks is gone for 3-4 weeks with ribcage injury.

Until the last week, the Pale Hose offense had come around and moved their scoring average up from 4.1 to 4.7 RPG. They hit rock bottom in the series with the A's, tallying five runs on 18 hits against a team that concedes 5.3 RPG. In order to compete with New York in the series opener or any of the four tilts, they have to do better than the 3.7 RPG they have scored in their past seven tries.


Betting Odds, Head-To-Head & Bullpen Numbers

If you are making MLB picks, New York has been pushed from -140 to -155 or higher depending on the sportsbook and the total is up from 9.5 to 10.5 in spite of the slumping offenses. The Yanks won the previous series at home this season and these two have split the last six on the South Side, with the 'over' 4-1-1. Both have stellar bullpens, with the Yankees 3rd in ERA in the AL and Chicago 4th.


The Winner Is ...

Not an easy call, but here is what sticks out: The White Sox are 13-8 vs. LH starters, New York is 9-8. The Yanks are 6-14 as a road favorite of -110 or higher, while the ChiSox are 16-8 after batting .200 or worse over a three-game span. Time to side with the home underdog.

Free MLB Pick: White Sox +144Best Line Offered: Heritage

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