Betting Baseball's Run Line Odds: Sunday's Prime Opportunities

Doug Upstone

Sunday, June 14, 2015 3:42 PM UTC

Sunday, Jun. 14, 2015 3:42 PM UTC

When reviewing Sunday's MLB odds, our daily picks will have a distinct American League flavor. Whether that turns out to be good or bad for sports picks we will find out later.

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox: Reeling Boston to Tumble Toronto
Boston made a series of off season moves to help them escape being a last place team for a second year in a row. To this point it has been a disaster with a 27-36 record and they are among the worst wagers in baseball at -15.6 units. The Red Sox are on five-game losing streak after showing some hope with a 5-2 upswing and are try to avoid being swept by the hottest team in baseball, Toronto.

The Blue Jays used to be in last place in the AL East, but have won 10 in row, powered by the best offense in the majors which is averaging 5.4 runs per contest. Toronto is averaging a sensational 6.8 RPG during this streak. Despite this, as a baseball handicapper I’m forecasting the Blue Jays will go down today.

Why, it starts with rookie sensation Eduardo Rodriguez who is 2-0, 0.44 ERA having allowed one run in 20 2/3 innings over three outings. Rodriguez has shown tremendous command in striking out a hitter an inning and walking only seven. The Jays Marco Estrada (3-3, 3.78) is merely serviceable and he is 0-8 versus an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse the last two seasons (Team's Record), losing by 2.8 runs per game.

Both these teams streaks cannot last forever and with having an exceptional run line price on the Red Sox at +170 (-1.5) at last look, I also find home RL range of (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +170), with an offensive scoring 4.2 or fewer runs a game, against a decent AL starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 4.70), after a loss by two runs or less, are 35-12 since 1997.


White Sox vs. Rays: Sail to Run Line Win with Sale
Chicago has dropped the first two games of this series to Tampa Bay but has an ace up its sleeve with Chris Sale (6-2, 3.04 ERA) to win the series finale. Sale has allowed one run and 12 hits in 22 2/3 innings over his last three outings. With 49 strikeouts in his last four starts, Sale has become the first White Sox pitcher ever to fan at least 10 in as many contests.

Considering the groove Sale is in and the fact Tampa Bay is averaging 3.4 RPG in their last seven tries, there is a very good chance the left-hander could limit the Rays to a run or less.

With the MLB odds total at 6.5, Tampa Bay is 3-12 on the RL at home when the total is seven or less this season, losing by 2.3 RPG. The Pale Hose at +135 (-1.5) are very tempting as MLB picks.


Twins vs. Rangers: Texas to Roll Behind Martinez
Minnesota has dropped five in a row and lost seven of eight and has to face Nick Martinez (5-2, 2.65) who has been brilliant all year. Texas is 9-3 in his starts, winning by 2.4 RPG and they will face Phil Hughes who has reverted back to his Yankees days at 4-6 with a 4.81 ERA. In the past three years Hughes is 3-14 in road games when working on five or six days rest (Team's Record), being on the short end by 1.7 RPG.

With the Twins averaging just 2.6 RPG in this stretch, which matches Martinez ERA and the Rangers rockin’ right-handed pitchers for 4.8 RPG, the sportsbooks having Texas at +175 (1.5) is very inviting.

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