Betting Baseball: Cardinals Will Be Better Birds Vs. Orioles

carlos martinez

Doug Upstone

Friday, June 16, 2017 3:04 PM GMT

Friday, Jun. 16, 2017 3:04 PM GMT

It has started out to be another ugly week for both St. Louis and Baltimore, and for one of these teams it will continue as they engage in interleague play Friday. For those betting baseball this will be tough choice.

The Cardinals just lost three of four at home to Milwaukee, while Baltimore looked befuddled in dropping below .500 for the first this season with a 1-3 mark at the Chicago White Sox to open this week. I have been a little befuddled myself in losing my last two MLB picks and will try and pick it up and better recent 11-7 record.

 

Pitching Matchup: Martinez vs. Gausman

The Cardinals' Carlos Martinez (5-5, 2.95 ERA) has overcome a slumbering start and is dialed in at this juncture. In Martinez's past three starts, he has a 1.93 ERA and other brilliant numbers. In those outings he has given up 12 hits in 23 1/3 innings, striking out 28 and walking only six. Martinez's volume of first-pitch strikes has set the table for these results and he is really trusting his slider with two strikes, using it 71 percent of the time recently.

The same cannot be said of Baltimore's Kevin Gausman (3-5, 6.49). The right-hander has been wilder than a little leaguer with 12 walks in 15 1/3 innings, covering his past three starts. When he's been able to actually throw strikes, baseball's hottest new term -- Exit Velocity -- has come up a lot with 24 base knocks surrendered. Gausman's fastball lacks movement and his breaking pitches are all over the place.

 

St. Louis Starting to Hit, Baltimore Missing Opportunities

At least the Cards' offense is picking up. The Redbirds are scoring only 4.1 runs per game, but in their last seven outings they are at 5.3 RPG, .283 BA and .350 OBP. What has turned this around is an adjustment to the top of the batting order with Matt Carpenter leading off, where he is more comfortable, and Dexter Fowler sliding down to the second slot and swinging with more authority.

Baltimore has been hitting the ball, just not coming up with the big hits. In the Orioles' past five contests they have put up 53 hits, and when they had 13 on two occasions they totaled 17 runs. In the three other tilts where they had nine base hits, they only managed six total runs, not being able to have a Birds batter deliver with runners on base.

 

Betting Odds, Interleague Record & Bullpen Numbers

The latest MLB odds have St. Louis as a -126 away favorite with a total of 9. This season the Redbirds are a pathetic 2-6 vs. the AL, while the O's are 6-3 against the NL. Neither bullpen has been up to past standards with Baltimore 15th in ERA the Cardinals a lowly 23rd.

 

The Winner Is ...

Martinez and the Cards are only 1-4 on the road this season, yet I have a terrific interleague system that is highly profitable, which will sway my opinion and it reads like this: Play against AL home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher, hitting .265 or less against a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or lower with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game. (37-8 the last 20 years)

Free MLB Pick: Cardinals -126Best Line Offered: Heritage

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