Better on the Mound, the Plate & on the Road: Guess How We Will Bet Braves vs. Rockies

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, July 9, 2015 1:04 PM UTC

Thursday, Jul. 9, 2015 1:04 PM UTC

My MLB pick for this matchup will be a gift for you dear bettor, as we're playing against the worst team with the inferior pitcher at a pick 'em price!

Atlanta Braves (A. Wood) vs. Colorado Rockies (Kendrick) 8:40 ET
The Atlanta Braves travel west from Milwaukee to Colorado for the beginning of a 4-game weekend set at Coors Field.  After taking the 1st two games from the Brewers this week, Atlanta was nipped by a 6-5 margin last night.  The Rockies remain home, after losing a pair to LA Angels to kick off the final week before the All Star break.  In this pick ‘em affair, I favor the team with the better record, who is in better current form and clearly has the best of it on the mound.

The Rockies continue their downward spiral with the 3rd worst record in MLB at 35-49.  The current run is 8-20, including 2-9 in their previous 11 games in which the Rockies are averaging just 2.6 RPG.  Even their once strong home field has diminished with a non-threatening 17-24 mark. Tonight’s starter, Kendrick, who has pitched the most innings for the Rockies, is clearly not the answer.  Colorado has won just 4 of 17 Kendrick starts, in which he has posted a 6.00 ERA.  But, that is worse from this mound, where in 7 starts, Kendrick has a 6.70 ERA and a 1.58 home WHIP.  Those are both pure PLAY AGAINST numbers.  In short, there is little to recommend about this Colorado team, whose .803 pitching OPS bodes poorly should Kendrick get blasted early, as he has so often.

Atlanta comes in with solid motivation at 42-43.  Their goal is to take 3 or 4 this weekend to finish on the plus side of .500 going into the break. History says that may well happen, as the Braves have won 16 of 21 recent contests against the Rockies. Atlanta may well be playing their best baseball of the season.  The Braves have won 7 of 10 recent starts and have averaged 4.6 RPG in their last 5 games. Tonight’s starter, Wood, has been consistent and solid all year long with a 3.34 ERA. His best work has actually come on the road which has been characterized by a solid 1.28 road WHIP. 

If the obvious works in MLB, this should be a winner. We have the best of it on the mound, a strong series history and the team whose bats are in better current form. At a pick ‘em range price, Atlanta offers great value in this contest.

MLB Pick: Atlanta Braves (A. Wood)

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